U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00414950 · Texas

Frost Dates for Lajitas, TX

NOAA weather station Lajitas (USC00414950), Texas · elevation 2403 ft (732 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 20only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season267 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lajitas, TXSpring: a frost after February 11 in 9 years out of 10, after March 2 in half of the years, after March 20 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 7 in 1 year out of 10, before November 24 in half of the years, before December 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 267 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 2First frost ~Nov 24Frost season at Lajitas, TXSpring: a frost after February 11 in 9 years out of 10, after March 2 in half of the years, after March 20 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 7 in 1 year out of 10, before November 24 in half of the years, before December 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 267 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 2First frost ~Nov 24
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 20November 7
50% (typical)March 2November 24
90% (likely)February 11December 8
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
267 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 15
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 2

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost February 28 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 26 (2 days later). Frost-free season 268 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lajitas: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 20, 20% March 13, 30% March 9, 40% March 5, 50% March 2, 60% February 27, 70% February 22, 80% February 17, 90% February 11. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 24, 2025 February 25, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 20Mar 2Feb 112021: February 242025: February 252026: March 17Fall at Lajitas: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 7, 20% November 13, 30% November 17, 40% November 21, 50% November 24, 60% November 27, 70% November 30, 80% December 3, 90% December 8. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2024 December 12.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 7Nov 24Dec 82024: December 12
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 24incomplete record
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023incomplete recordincomplete record
2024incomplete recordDecember 12
2025February 25incomplete record
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

March 20 is the cautious spring light-frost date for Lajitas; with only a 10 % chance of a frost later, a gardener can plan to set out tender crops after that day.

The 50 % dates mark the point at which the odds of a light frost are even. In spring the median date is March 2, and in fall the median date is November 24; gardeners should recognize that a frost is just as likely to have occurred as not on those days. The hard-frost 50 % dates are February 15 in spring and December 2 in fall. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that survives a 32 °F light frost.

For a cautious fall schedule the 10 % date is November 7, when there is only a small chance a light frost has arrived, allowing growers to finish harvesting tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 20" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 7" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lajitas, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Chisos Basin, TX — 28 mi; 2 — Mount Locke, TX — 100 mi; 3 — Van Horn, TX — 138 mi; 4 — McCamey, TX — 158 mi; 5 — Del Rio, TX — 171 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Chisos Basin, TX — 28 mi12. Mount Locke, TX — 100 mi23. Van Horn, TX — 138 mi34. McCamey, TX — 158 mi45. Del Rio, TX — 171 mi5
  1. Chisos Basin, TX 28 mi (44 km)
  2. Mount Locke, TX 100 mi (162 km)
  3. Van Horn, TX 138 mi (223 km)
  4. McCamey, TX 158 mi (254 km)
  5. Del Rio, TX 171 mi (275 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 29.2694, -103.7575.