U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00419295 · Texas

Frost Dates for Van Horn, TX

NOAA weather station Van Horn (USC00419295), Texas · elevation 4065 ft (1239 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 9only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season234 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Van Horn, TXSpring: a frost after March 2 in 9 years out of 10, after March 21 in half of the years, after April 9 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before November 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 234 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 21First frost ~Nov 11Frost season at Van Horn, TXSpring: a frost after March 2 in 9 years out of 10, after March 21 in half of the years, after April 9 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before November 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 234 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 21First frost ~Nov 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 9October 27
50% (typical)March 21November 11
90% (likely)March 2November 24
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
234 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 21

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 17 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 10 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 235 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Van Horn: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 9, 20% April 3, 30% March 31, 40% March 25, 50% March 21, 60% March 15, 70% March 11, 80% March 7, 90% March 2. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 4, 2022 March 19, 2023 March 20, 2024 February 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 9Mar 21Mar 22021: March 42022: March 192023: March 202024: February 19Fall at Van Horn: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 27, 20% October 31, 30% November 4, 40% November 7, 50% November 11, 60% November 14, 70% November 16, 80% November 20, 90% November 24. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 19, 2023 October 30, 2024 November 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 27Nov 11Nov 242021: November 192023: October 302024: November 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 4November 19
2022March 19incomplete record
2023March 20October 30
2024February 19November 9
2025incomplete recordno data
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

October 27 marks the cautious fall date in Van Horn for finishing the harvest, with only a ten-percent chance that a light frost has arrived earlier.

The 50 % light-frost dates are March 21 in spring and November 11 in fall; each represents an even chance of a frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). The median hard-frost dates are March 4 and November 21, signalling when a 28 °F frost is as likely as not.

For a cautious plan, tender crops should be set out after the April 9 light-frost date in spring and harvested before the October 27 date in fall. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F because the lower temperature can freeze tissue that survives a milder frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 9" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Van Horn, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Mount Locke, TX — 54 mi; 2 — Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 96 mi; 3 — Carlsbad, NM — 97 mi; 4 — near Wink, TX — 109 mi; 5 — Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM — 111 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Mount Locke, TX — 54 mi12. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 96 mi23. Carlsbad, NM — 97 mi34. near Wink, TX — 109 mi45. Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM — 111 mi5
  1. Mount Locke, TX 54 mi (86 km)
  2. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM 96 mi (154 km)
  3. Carlsbad, NM 97 mi (156 km)
  4. near Wink, TX 109 mi (176 km)
  5. Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM 111 mi (178 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 31.0417, -104.8372.