U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093033 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM

NOAA weather station Carlsbad Cavern City Airport (USW00093033), New Mexico · elevation 3232 ft (985 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season223 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NMSpring: a frost after March 7 in 9 years out of 10, after March 27 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 18 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 27First frost ~Nov 7Frost season at Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NMSpring: a frost after March 7 in 9 years out of 10, after March 27 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 18 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 27First frost ~Nov 7
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 13October 26
50% (typical)March 27November 7
90% (likely)March 7November 18
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
223 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 9
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 16

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 30 (3 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 6 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 220 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport): chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 13, 20% April 6, 30% April 3, 40% March 31, 50% March 27, 60% March 23, 70% March 18, 80% March 13, 90% March 7. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 25, 2022 March 24, 2023 April 7, 2024 March 10, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 13Mar 27Mar 72021: March 252022: March 242023: April 72024: March 102025: March 212026: March 17Fall at Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport): chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 26, 20% October 30, 30% November 2, 40% November 4, 50% November 7, 60% November 9, 70% November 11, 80% November 15, 90% November 18. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 12, 2022 November 11, 2023 October 30, 2024 November 9, 2025 December 1.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 26Nov 7Nov 182021: November 122022: November 112023: October 302024: November 92025: December 1
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 25November 12
2022March 24November 11
2023April 7October 30
2024March 10November 9
2025March 21December 1
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on March 7 in Carlsbad carries a 90 % chance of a light frost later that season, making it a gamble for growers. The cautious spring date is April 13, when only a 10 % chance of a light frost remains.

The 50% date of March 27 represents a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date, and the 50% date of November 7 represents a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. For a careful fall schedule, October 26 is the cautious date, with just a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived. The hard-frost 50% dates are March 9 in spring and November 16 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that survives a light frost at 32 °F, so these dates matter more.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 26" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Carlsbad, NM — 2 mi; 2 — Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM — 27 mi; 3 — Artesia, NM — 30 mi; 4 — near Roswell, NM — 69 mi; 5 — near Wink, TX — 73 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Carlsbad, NM — 2 mi12. Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM — 27 mi23. Artesia, NM — 30 mi34. near Roswell, NM — 69 mi45. near Wink, TX — 73 mi5
  1. Carlsbad, NM 2 mi (4 km)
  2. Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM 27 mi (43 km)
  3. Artesia, NM 30 mi (48 km)
  4. near Roswell, NM 69 mi (111 km)
  5. near Wink, TX 73 mi (117 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.3336, -104.2581.