U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00023009 · New Mexico

Frost Dates near Roswell, NM

NOAA weather station Roswell Industrial Air Park (USW00023009), New Mexico · elevation 3649 ft (1112 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

Roswell is the nearest town to the station (6.1 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 15only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season223 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Roswell, NMSpring: a frost after March 8 in 9 years out of 10, after March 29 in half of the years, after April 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 29First frost ~Nov 7Frost season near Roswell, NMSpring: a frost after March 8 in 9 years out of 10, after March 29 in half of the years, after April 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 29First frost ~Nov 7
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 15October 26
50% (typical)March 29November 7
90% (likely)March 8November 19
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
223 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 10
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 16

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 29 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 6 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 223 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Roswell: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 15, 20% April 9, 30% April 4, 40% April 1, 50% March 29, 60% March 24, 70% March 19, 80% March 13, 90% March 8. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 25, 2022 March 24, 2023 March 28, 2024 April 10, 2025 April 5, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 15Mar 29Mar 82021: March 252022: March 242023: March 282024: April 102025: April 52026: March 17Fall near Roswell: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 26, 20% October 30, 30% November 2, 40% November 5, 50% November 7, 60% November 9, 70% November 12, 80% November 15, 90% November 19. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 November 12, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 30, 2025 October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 26Nov 7Nov 192021: November 52022: November 122023: October 312024: November 302025: October 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 25November 5
2022March 24November 12
2023March 28October 31
2024April 10November 30
2025April 5October 29
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 26 is the cautious fall date in the Roswell area for finishing the harvest of tender crops. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 15, when only a 10 % chance of a light frost later than that date remains.

Gardeners see the 50 % date is March 29, meaning there is an even chance of a light frost later in spring, and the 50 % date is November 7, meaning there is an even chance of a light frost earlier in fall. The 50 % hard-frost dates are March 10 and November 16.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that survives a light frost at 32 °F, so the hard-frost dates are especially relevant for protecting tender plants.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 15" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 26" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Roswell, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Artesia, NM — 39 mi; 2 — Elk, NM — 55 mi; 3 — Carlsbad, NM — 68 mi; 4 — Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 69 mi; 5 — Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM — 76 mi.NM25 mi · 40 km1. Artesia, NM — 39 mi12. Elk, NM — 55 mi23. Carlsbad, NM — 68 mi34. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 69 mi45. Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM — 76 mi5
  1. Artesia, NM 39 mi (63 km)
  2. Elk, NM 55 mi (89 km)
  3. Carlsbad, NM 68 mi (110 km)
  4. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM 69 mi (111 km)
  5. Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM 76 mi (123 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.3075, -104.5083.