U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00299569 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM

NOAA weather station Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant (USC00299569), New Mexico · elevation 3411 ft (1040 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 26only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season210 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NMSpring: a frost after March 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 210 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Nov 2Frost season at Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NMSpring: a frost after March 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 210 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Nov 2
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 26October 20
50% (typical)April 6November 2
90% (likely)March 16November 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
210 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 11

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 10 (4 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 3 (1 day later). Frost-free season 207 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 26, 20% April 21, 30% April 15, 40% April 10, 50% April 6, 60% April 3, 70% March 30, 80% March 24, 90% March 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2022 April 14, 2023 April 28.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 26Apr 6Mar 162022: April 142023: April 28Fall at Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 20, 20% October 25, 30% October 28, 40% October 31, 50% November 2, 60% November 4, 70% November 7, 80% November 11, 90% November 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 November 5, 2023 October 31.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 20Nov 2Nov 162021: November 42022: November 52023: October 31
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordNovember 4
2022April 14November 5
2023April 28October 31
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

April 26 is the cautious spring date at Waste Isolt’n Pilot Plant; it marks a 10 % chance that a light frost (32 °F) will occur later, so a gardener can plan to set out tender crops with low risk. The 50 % date, April 6, represents the median point where a frost is equally likely to happen before or after, while March 16 carries a 90 % chance of a later frost and is a gamble for early planting.

In the fall the cautious date is October 20, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived, allowing a gardener to finish harvesting tender crops with confidence. The median November 2 is the 50 % date, and November 16 has a 90 % chance of an earlier frost, making late planting risky. The hard-frost median dates are March 21 in spring and November 11 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can injure or kill plants that survive a light frost, so it matters more.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 26" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 20" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Carlsbad, NM — 25 mi; 2 — Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 27 mi; 3 — Artesia, NM — 43 mi; 4 — near Wink, TX — 54 mi; 5 — near Roswell, NM — 76 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Carlsbad, NM — 25 mi12. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 27 mi23. Artesia, NM — 43 mi34. near Wink, TX — 54 mi45. near Roswell, NM — 76 mi5
  1. Carlsbad, NM 25 mi (40 km)
  2. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM 27 mi (43 km)
  3. Artesia, NM 43 mi (69 km)
  4. near Wink, TX 54 mi (87 km)
  5. near Roswell, NM 76 mi (123 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.3778, -103.7986.