U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00411715 · Texas

Frost Dates for Chisos Basin, TX

NOAA weather station Chisos Basin (USC00411715), Texas · elevation 5300 ft (1615 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season252 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Chisos Basin, TXSpring: a frost after February 12 in 9 years out of 10, after March 10 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 19 in half of the years, before December 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 252 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 10First frost ~Nov 19Frost season at Chisos Basin, TXSpring: a frost after February 12 in 9 years out of 10, after March 10 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 19 in half of the years, before December 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 252 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 10First frost ~Nov 19
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 6October 29
50% (typical)March 10November 19
90% (likely)February 12December 9
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
252 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 2

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 6 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 23 (4 days later). Frost-free season 259 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Chisos Basin: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 6, 20% March 31, 30% March 23, 40% March 15, 50% March 10, 60% March 4, 70% February 28, 80% February 23, 90% February 12. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 3, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 20, 2024 February 20, 2025 April 7, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Apr 6Mar 10Feb 122021: March 32022: March 132023: March 202024: February 202025: April 72026: March 17Fall at Chisos Basin: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 29, 20% November 4, 30% November 10, 40% November 15, 50% November 19, 60% November 23, 70% November 28, 80% December 2, 90% December 9. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 December 19, 2022 November 17, 2023 October 30, 2024 December 11, 2025 January 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Oct 29Nov 19Dec 92021: December 192022: November 172023: October 302024: December 112025: January 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 3December 19
2022March 13November 17
2023March 20October 30
2024February 20December 11
2025April 7January 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 29 marks the cautious fall date in Chisos Basin for finishing the harvest of tender crops, because only a 10 % chance of a light frost exists before that day.

In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 6, when the chance of a light frost later than that date is just 10 %; planting on February 12 would be a gamble with a 90 % chance of frost. The 50% dates are March 10 and November 19, each representing a 50 % chance of a light frost occurring later than March 10 in spring and earlier than November 19 in fall, while the hard-frost 50% dates are February 21 and December 2.

A hard frost at 28 °F matters more than a light frost at 32 °F because it can damage or kill plants that would otherwise survive a milder chill.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Chisos Basin, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Lajitas, TX — 28 mi; 2 — Mount Locke, TX — 108 mi; 3 — Del Rio, TX — 143 mi; 4 — McCamey, TX — 144 mi; 5 — Van Horn, TX — 153 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Lajitas, TX — 28 mi12. Mount Locke, TX — 108 mi23. Del Rio, TX — 143 mi34. McCamey, TX — 144 mi45. Van Horn, TX — 153 mi5
  1. Lajitas, TX 28 mi (44 km)
  2. Mount Locke, TX 108 mi (174 km)
  3. Del Rio, TX 143 mi (230 km)
  4. McCamey, TX 144 mi (232 km)
  5. Van Horn, TX 153 mi (246 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 29.2703, -103.3003.