U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00415707 · Texas

Frost Dates for McCamey, TX

NOAA weather station McCamey (USC00415707), Texas · elevation 2461 ft (750 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 2only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season247 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at McCamey, TXSpring: a frost after February 23 in 9 years out of 10, after March 12 in half of the years, after April 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 16 in half of the years, before December 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 247 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 12First frost ~Nov 16Frost season at McCamey, TXSpring: a frost after February 23 in 9 years out of 10, after March 12 in half of the years, after April 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 16 in half of the years, before December 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 247 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 12First frost ~Nov 16
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 2November 2
50% (typical)March 12November 16
90% (likely)February 23December 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
247 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 1
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 27

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 8 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 16. Frost-free season 251 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at McCamey: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 2, 20% March 27, 30% March 22, 40% March 16, 50% March 12, 60% March 8, 70% March 5, 80% February 28, 90% February 23. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 3.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 2Mar 12Feb 232021: March 3Fall at McCamey: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 2, 20% November 6, 30% November 10, 40% November 13, 50% November 16, 60% November 20, 70% November 24, 80% November 28, 90% December 3. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 December 20.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 2Nov 16Dec 32021: December 20
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 3December 20
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023incomplete recordincomplete record
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on February 23 in McCamey is a gamble, because a light frost later than that date occurs with a 90 % chance. The cautious spring date for tender crops is April 2, when only a 10 % chance of a later frost remains. The 50 % date, March 12, marks the point at which a light frost has a 50 % chance of occurring. The median hard-frost date for spring is March 1, indicating when a 28 °F frost is as likely as not.

In the fall, November 2 provides the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived. Planting or leaving tender crops until December 3 would be a gamble, as a frost earlier than that date is 90 % likely. The 50 % fall light-frost date is November 16, and the median hard-frost date is November 27. A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F because it reaches temperatures that can kill plant tissue rather than merely chill it.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 2" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near McCamey, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Midland, TX — 56 mi; 2 — near Wink, TX — 73 mi; 3 — Water Valley, TX — 96 mi; 4 — San Angelo, TX — 103 mi; 5 — Mount Locke, TX — 111 mi.NM50 mi · 80 km1. near Midland, TX — 56 mi12. near Wink, TX — 73 mi23. Water Valley, TX — 96 mi34. San Angelo, TX — 103 mi45. Mount Locke, TX — 111 mi5
  1. near Midland, TX 56 mi (90 km)
  2. near Wink, TX 73 mi (118 km)
  3. Water Valley, TX 96 mi (154 km)
  4. San Angelo, TX 103 mi (167 km)
  5. Mount Locke, TX 111 mi (178 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 31.1331, -102.2217.