U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00419499 · Texas

Frost Dates for Water Valley, TX

NOAA weather station Water Valley (USC00419499), Texas · elevation 2115 ft (645 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 24only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season211 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Water Valley, TXSpring: a frost after March 14 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 24 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 211 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Nov 2Frost season at Water Valley, TXSpring: a frost after March 14 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 24 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 211 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Nov 2
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 24October 18
50% (typical)April 6November 2
90% (likely)March 14November 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
211 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 11

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 7 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 2. Frost-free season 209 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Water Valley: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 24, 20% April 17, 30% April 13, 40% April 9, 50% April 6, 60% April 2, 70% March 29, 80% March 22, 90% March 14. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 2, 2022 April 9, 2023 March 19, 2025 April 7, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 24Apr 6Mar 142021: April 22022: April 92023: March 192025: April 72026: March 17Fall at Water Valley: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 18, 20% October 24, 30% October 28, 40% November 1, 50% November 2, 60% November 5, 70% November 7, 80% November 10, 90% November 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 13, 2022 November 12, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 21.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 18Nov 2Nov 162021: November 132022: November 122023: October 312024: November 21
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 2November 13
2022April 9November 12
2023March 19October 31
2024incomplete recordNovember 21
2025April 7incomplete record
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 18 marks the cautious fall date for tender crops in Water Valley; there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, making it a good point to finish harvesting. In spring the cautious date is April 24, when a light frost later than that date is only a 10 % risk, while planting on March 14 carries a 90 % risk. The 50 % dates are April 6 for spring and November 2 for fall; these are the points at which the chance of a light frost is even. The 50 % hard-frost dates are March 21 and November 11, indicating when a 28 °F frost is equally likely to have occurred or not. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage or kill plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F. Knowing these dates lets a gardener gauge when the risk of frost rises or falls throughout the season.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 24" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 18" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Water Valley, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — San Angelo, TX — 25 mi; 2 — Ballinger, TX — 44 mi; 3 — Wingate, TX — 45 mi; 4 — Abilene, TX — 80 mi; 5 — Rotan, TX — 83 mi.50 mi · 80 km1. San Angelo, TX — 25 mi12. Ballinger, TX — 44 mi23. Wingate, TX — 45 mi34. Abilene, TX — 80 mi45. Rotan, TX — 83 mi5
  1. San Angelo, TX 25 mi (40 km)
  2. Ballinger, TX 44 mi (72 km)
  3. Wingate, TX 45 mi (72 km)
  4. Abilene, TX 80 mi (128 km)
  5. Rotan, TX 83 mi (134 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 31.6725, -100.7283.