U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00417782 · Texas

Frost Dates for Rotan, TX

NOAA weather station Rotan (USC00417782), Texas · elevation 1995 ft (608 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 3only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season243 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Rotan, TXSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 17 in half of the years, after April 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 31 in 1 year out of 10, before November 15 in half of the years, before December 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 243 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 17First frost ~Nov 15Frost season at Rotan, TXSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 17 in half of the years, after April 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 31 in 1 year out of 10, before November 15 in half of the years, before December 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 243 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 17First frost ~Nov 15
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 3October 31
50% (typical)March 17November 15
90% (likely)February 28December 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
243 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 28

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 14 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 15. Frost-free season 247 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Rotan: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 3, 20% March 30, 30% March 26, 40% March 21, 50% March 17, 60% March 13, 70% March 9, 80% March 4, 90% February 28.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 3Mar 17Feb 28Fall at Rotan: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 31, 20% November 5, 30% November 9, 40% November 12, 50% November 15, 60% November 18, 70% November 22, 80% November 27, 90% December 3.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 31Nov 15Dec 3
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

April 3 is the cautious spring date in Rotan, marking the point when there is only a 10 % chance of a light frost later; a gardener can confidently set out tender crops after this day. The 50% date is March 17, which means a gardener faces an even chance of a frost after that date. By contrast, February 28 carries a 90 % chance of frost later, making a spring planting then a gamble.

October 31 is the cautious fall date, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier; it tells a gardener when to finish harvesting tender crops. The 50% date is November 15, indicating an even chance of frost earlier. Hard-frost dates are March 4 in spring and November 28 in fall, and a 28 °F frost can damage plants more severely than a 32 °F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 3" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 31" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Rotan, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Aspermont, TX — 24 mi; 2 — Jayton, TX — 28 mi; 3 — Stamford, TX — 39 mi; 4 — Abilene, TX — 55 mi; 5 — Wingate, TX — 60 mi.TX25 mi · 40 km1. Aspermont, TX — 24 mi12. Jayton, TX — 28 mi23. Stamford, TX — 39 mi34. Abilene, TX — 55 mi45. Wingate, TX — 60 mi5
  1. Aspermont, TX 24 mi (39 km)
  2. Jayton, TX 28 mi (46 km)
  3. Stamford, TX 39 mi (62 km)
  4. Abilene, TX 55 mi (88 km)
  5. Wingate, TX 60 mi (96 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.8556, -100.4611.