U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00400137 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Ames Plantation, TN

NOAA weather station Ames Plantation (USC00400137), Tennessee · elevation 460 ft (140 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 17only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season217 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Ames Plantation, TNSpring: a frost after March 12 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 21 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 217 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 3Frost season at Ames Plantation, TNSpring: a frost after March 12 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 21 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 217 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 3
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 17October 21
50% (typical)April 1November 3
90% (likely)March 12November 19
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
217 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 17
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 14

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 31 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (2 days earlier). Frost-free season 217 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Ames Plantation: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 17, 20% April 11, 30% April 7, 40% April 3, 50% April 1, 60% March 29, 70% March 24, 80% March 19, 90% March 12. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 2, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 20, 2025 March 18, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 17Apr 1Mar 122021: April 232022: April 22023: March 212024: March 202025: March 182026: March 18Fall at Ames Plantation: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 21, 20% October 26, 30% October 29, 40% November 1, 50% November 3, 60% November 5, 70% November 9, 80% November 12, 90% November 19. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 22, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 21Nov 3Nov 192021: November 42022: October 182023: October 312024: November 222025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 4
2022April 2October 18
2023March 21October 31
2024March 20November 22
2025March 18November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 12 in Ames Plantation carries a 90% chance that a frost will occur later that season, making it a gamble.

The cautious spring date for tender crops is April 17, when only a 10% chance of frost remains; the cautious fall date is October 21, when there is a 10% chance that frost has already arrived. The 50% dates are April 1 and November 3, each marking an even chance of frost later in spring or earlier in fall, while the hard-frost median dates are March 17 and November 14. The climate record spans 27 years, and the interval between the two 32°F 50% dates is 217 days.

Hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that would survive the lighter 32 °F frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 17" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 21" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Ames Plantation, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Bolivar, TN — 16 mi; 2 — Brownsville, TN — 33 mi; 3 — near Cordova, TN — 33 mi; 4 — Selmer, TN — 35 mi; 5 — Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN — 37 mi.TNMSAR25 mi · 40 km1. Bolivar, TN — 16 mi12. Brownsville, TN — 33 mi23. near Cordova, TN — 33 mi34. Selmer, TN — 35 mi45. Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN — 37 mi5
  1. Bolivar, TN 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Brownsville, TN 33 mi (53 km)
  3. near Cordova, TN 33 mi (54 km)
  4. Selmer, TN 35 mi (56 km)
  5. Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN 37 mi (60 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.1131, -89.2122.