U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00003811 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN

NOAA weather station Jackson McKellar Airport (USW00003811), Tennessee · elevation 433 ft (132 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 21only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season207 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Jackson (McKellar Airport), TNSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 207 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Oct 29Frost season at Jackson (McKellar Airport), TNSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 207 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Oct 29
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 21October 16
50% (typical)April 5October 29
90% (likely)March 19November 10
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
207 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 25
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 7

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 4 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 30 (1 day later). Frost-free season 207 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Jackson (McKellar Airport): chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 21, 20% April 16, 30% April 11, 40% April 8, 50% April 5, 60% April 2, 70% March 31, 80% March 26, 90% March 19. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 19, 2023 March 29, 2024 March 28, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 21Apr 5Mar 192021: April 222022: April 192023: March 292024: March 282025: March 212026: March 17Fall at Jackson (McKellar Airport): chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 16, 20% October 21, 30% October 24, 40% October 27, 50% October 29, 60% November 1, 70% November 3, 80% November 6, 90% November 10. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 23, 2025 November 3.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 16Oct 29Nov 102021: November 42022: October 182023: October 312024: November 232025: November 3
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 4
2022April 19October 18
2023March 29October 31
2024March 28November 23
2025March 21November 3
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in Jackson (McKellar Airport) is October 16, when there is only a 10% chance a light frost has arrived. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 21, which carries a 10% chance of a later light frost. The 50% dates, which mark the point of even odds for a light frost, are April 5 for spring and October 29 for fall.

The hard-frost median dates are March 25 in spring and November 7 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can injure plant tissue more severely than the milder 32 °F light frost. Gardeners can aim to plant hardy varieties before April 21 and to complete tender harvests before October 16, using the 50% dates as a reference for when the risk of frost is balanced.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 21" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Jackson (McKellar Airport), TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Jackson, TN — 4 mi; 2 — Brownsville, TN — 19 mi; 3 — Bolivar, TN — 23 mi; 4 — Lexington, TN — 30 mi; 5 — Selmer, TN — 35 mi.TNALAR25 mi · 40 km1. near Jackson, TN — 4 mi12. Brownsville, TN — 19 mi23. Bolivar, TN — 23 mi34. Lexington, TN — 30 mi45. Selmer, TN — 35 mi5
  1. near Jackson, TN 4 mi (7 km)
  2. Brownsville, TN 19 mi (31 km)
  3. Bolivar, TN 23 mi (37 km)
  4. Lexington, TN 30 mi (48 km)
  5. Selmer, TN 35 mi (56 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.5931, -88.9167.