U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00408160 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Selmer, TN

NOAA weather station Selmer (USC00408160), Tennessee · elevation 470 ft (143 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 20only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season206 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Selmer, TNSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 20 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 206 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Oct 30Frost season at Selmer, TNSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 20 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 206 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Oct 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 20October 18
50% (typical)April 6October 30
90% (likely)March 19November 12
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
206 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 9

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 5 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 30. Frost-free season 207 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Selmer: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 20, 20% April 16, 30% April 12, 40% April 9, 50% April 6, 60% April 3, 70% March 31, 80% March 26, 90% March 19. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 10, 2023 March 21, 2024 April 6, 2025 April 9, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 20Apr 6Mar 192021: April 222022: April 102023: March 212024: April 62025: April 92026: March 18Fall at Selmer: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 18, 20% October 22, 30% October 25, 40% October 28, 50% October 30, 60% November 1, 70% November 4, 80% November 6, 90% November 12. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 21, 2025 November 3.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 18Oct 30Nov 122021: November 42022: October 182023: October 312024: November 212025: November 3
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 4
2022April 10October 18
2023March 21October 31
2024April 6November 21
2025April 9November 3
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 206 days between the 50% dates in Selmer frame the window in which light frosts are statistically less likely. The 50% date in spring is April 6 and the 50% date in fall is October 30; each marks the point where a light frost has an even chance of occurring, but they are not frost dates themselves.

A cautious plan for tender crops would aim to set seedlings outdoors on the April 20 date, which carries only a 10 % chance of a later frost, and to finish harvesting tender crops by October 18, which also carries only a 10 % chance of an earlier frost.

Hard frosts at 28 °F, represented by the March 24 and November 9 50% dates, are more damaging to plants than the 32 °F light-frost threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 20" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 18" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Selmer, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Corinth, MS — 20 mi; 2 — Bolivar, TN — 23 mi; 3 — near Jackson, TN — 34 mi; 4 — Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN — 35 mi; 5 — Ames Plantation, TN — 35 mi.MSARAL25 mi · 40 km1. Corinth, MS — 20 mi12. Bolivar, TN — 23 mi23. near Jackson, TN — 34 mi34. Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN — 35 mi45. Ames Plantation, TN — 35 mi5
  1. Corinth, MS 20 mi (32 km)
  2. Bolivar, TN 23 mi (37 km)
  3. near Jackson, TN 34 mi (55 km)
  4. Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN 35 mi (56 km)
  5. Ames Plantation, TN 35 mi (56 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.1647, -88.5994.