U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00405210 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Lexington, TN

NOAA weather station Lexington (USC00405210), Tennessee · elevation 540 ft (165 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 21only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season208 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lexington, TNSpring: a frost after March 17 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 208 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Oct 30Frost season at Lexington, TNSpring: a frost after March 17 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 208 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Oct 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 21October 18
50% (typical)April 5October 30
90% (likely)March 17November 12
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
208 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 8

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 5 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 31 (1 day later). Frost-free season 207 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lexington: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 21, 20% April 15, 30% April 11, 40% April 7, 50% April 5, 60% April 2, 70% March 29, 80% March 23, 90% March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 21Apr 5Mar 17Fall at Lexington: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 18, 20% October 22, 30% October 25, 40% October 28, 50% October 30, 60% November 1, 70% November 4, 80% November 7, 90% November 12. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2023 October 31, 2024 October 17.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 18Oct 30Nov 122023: October 312024: October 17
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021no datano data
2022no dataincomplete record
2023incomplete recordOctober 31
2024incomplete recordOctober 17
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

April 21 is the cautious spring date, carrying only a 10% chance of a frost later, and it lets a gardener plan to set out tender crops. By contrast, the 90% chance date of March 17 would be a gamble. The 50% date is April 5; at that point a frost is equally likely. The 50% hard-frost date is March 24, marking the median moment a 28°F frost could occur.

October 18 is the cautious fall date, with only a 10% chance of a frost earlier, so it is the point to finish harvesting tender crops. The 50% date is October 30, and the 50% hard-frost date is November 8. A hard frost matters more than a light frost because temperatures of 28°F can cause far greater damage to plant tissue than the milder 32°F threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 21" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 18" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lexington, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Huntingdon, TN — 24 mi; 2 — near Jackson, TN — 26 mi; 3 — Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN — 30 mi; 4 — Linden, TN — 31 mi; 5 — Selmer, TN — 36 mi.ALMO25 mi · 40 km1. Huntingdon, TN — 24 mi12. near Jackson, TN — 26 mi23. Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN — 30 mi34. Linden, TN — 31 mi45. Selmer, TN — 36 mi5
  1. Huntingdon, TN 24 mi (39 km)
  2. near Jackson, TN 26 mi (41 km)
  3. Jackson (McKellar Airport), TN 30 mi (48 km)
  4. Linden, TN 31 mi (50 km)
  5. Selmer, TN 36 mi (57 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.6503, -88.3903.