U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00405956 · Tennessee

Frost Dates near Cordova, TN

NOAA weather station Memphis WFO (USC00405956), Tennessee · elevation 310 ft (95 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

Cordova is the nearest town to the station (2.4 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season223 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Cordova, TNSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after March 29 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 25 in 1 year out of 10, before November 5 in half of the years, before November 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 29First frost ~Nov 5Frost season near Cordova, TNSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after March 29 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 25 in 1 year out of 10, before November 5 in half of the years, before November 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 29First frost ~Nov 5
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 13October 25
50% (typical)March 29November 5
90% (likely)March 9November 22
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
223 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 15
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 17

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 26 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 5. Frost-free season 225 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Cordova: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 13, 20% April 8, 30% April 4, 40% April 1, 50% March 29, 60% March 25, 70% March 20, 80% March 16, 90% March 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 3, 2022 March 14, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 20, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 13Mar 29Mar 92021: April 32022: March 142023: March 212024: March 202025: March 212026: March 18Fall near Cordova: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 25, 20% October 29, 30% November 1, 40% November 3, 50% November 5, 60% November 8, 70% November 12, 80% November 16, 90% November 22. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 25Nov 5Nov 222021: November 42022: October 192023: October 312024: November 292025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 3November 4
2022March 14October 19
2023March 21October 31
2024March 20November 29
2025March 21November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 9 in the Cordova area is a gamble, because there is a 90% chance of a light frost later. The 50% dates—March 29 in spring and November 5 in fall—are the points at which a light frost is equally likely to have occurred or not; they give gardeners a neutral reference for timing. For a cautious approach, the spring date to plant tender crops is April 13, when only a 10% chance of a later light frost remains, and the fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 25, with only a 10% chance that a light frost has already arrived. The median hard-frost dates, March 15 and November 17, show when a 28°F event is as likely as not, and hard frost can damage plants more severely than a light frost because the lower temperature can kill tissue that survives a 32°F chill.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Cordova, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Memphis (Airport), TN — 12 mi; 2 — West Memphis, AR — 21 mi; 3 — Hernando, MS — 25 mi; 4 — Covington, TN — 30 mi; 5 — Independence, MS — 30 mi.ARTNMS25 mi · 40 km1. Memphis (Airport), TN — 12 mi12. West Memphis, AR — 21 mi23. Hernando, MS — 25 mi34. Covington, TN — 30 mi45. Independence, MS — 30 mi5
  1. Memphis (Airport), TN 12 mi (19 km)
  2. West Memphis, AR 21 mi (34 km)
  3. Hernando, MS 25 mi (41 km)
  4. Covington, TN 30 mi (48 km)
  5. Independence, MS 30 mi (48 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.1297, -89.8036.