U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00013893 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Memphis (Airport), TN

NOAA weather station Memphis International Airport (USW00013893), Tennessee · elevation 254 ft (77 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 4only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season244 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Memphis (Airport), TNSpring: a frost after February 27 in 9 years out of 10, after March 16 in half of the years, after April 4 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 16 in half of the years, before December 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 244 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 16First frost ~Nov 16Frost season at Memphis (Airport), TNSpring: a frost after February 27 in 9 years out of 10, after March 16 in half of the years, after April 4 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 16 in half of the years, before December 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 244 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 16First frost ~Nov 16
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 4November 2
50% (typical)March 16November 16
90% (likely)February 27December 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
244 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 28

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 13 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 14 (2 days earlier). Frost-free season 245 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Memphis (Airport): chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 4, 20% March 29, 30% March 24, 40% March 20, 50% March 16, 60% March 13, 70% March 9, 80% March 4, 90% February 27. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 3, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 19, 2025 February 24, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 4Mar 16Feb 272021: March 32022: March 132023: March 202024: March 192025: February 242026: March 17Fall at Memphis (Airport): chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 2, 20% November 6, 30% November 9, 40% November 13, 50% November 16, 60% November 19, 70% November 23, 80% November 27, 90% December 3. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 26, 2022 November 12, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 2Nov 16Dec 32021: November 262022: November 122023: November 12024: November 292025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 3November 26
2022March 13November 12
2023March 20November 1
2024March 19November 29
2025February 24November 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in Memphis (Airport) is November 2, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier.

For a gardener, the 50 % dates mark the point of even odds for a light frost: the 50 % date is March 16, indicating a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date, and the 50 % date is November 16, indicating a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. A cautious spring plan uses the April 4 date, which carries a 10 % chance of a frost later, while a cautious fall plan relies on November 2.

A hard frost at 28 °F (the 50 % dates are March 4 and November 28) can cause more severe injury than a light frost at 32 °F, making it the more critical temperature threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 4" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Memphis (Airport), TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Cordova, TN — 12 mi; 2 — West Memphis, AR — 12 mi; 3 — Hernando, MS — 17 mi; 4 — Independence, MS — 26 mi; 5 — Covington, TN — 38 mi.ARTNMS25 mi · 40 km1. near Cordova, TN — 12 mi12. West Memphis, AR — 12 mi23. Hernando, MS — 17 mi34. Independence, MS — 26 mi45. Covington, TN — 38 mi5
  1. near Cordova, TN 12 mi (19 km)
  2. West Memphis, AR 12 mi (19 km)
  3. Hernando, MS 17 mi (28 km)
  4. Independence, MS 26 mi (43 km)
  5. Covington, TN 38 mi (61 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.0564, -89.9864.