U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00223975 · Mississippi

Frost Dates for Hernando, MS

NOAA weather station Hernando (USC00223975), Mississippi · elevation 380 ft (116 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 12only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season223 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Hernando, MSSpring: a frost after March 6 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 25 in 1 year out of 10, before November 5 in half of the years, before November 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 5Frost season at Hernando, MSSpring: a frost after March 6 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 25 in 1 year out of 10, before November 5 in half of the years, before November 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 5
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 12October 25
50% (typical)March 28November 5
90% (likely)March 6November 20
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
223 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 13
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 16

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 26 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 4 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 226 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Hernando: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 12, 20% April 6, 30% April 2, 40% March 31, 50% March 28, 60% March 23, 70% March 19, 80% March 14, 90% March 6. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 3, 2022 April 1, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 20, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 12Mar 28Mar 62021: April 32022: April 12023: March 212024: March 202025: March 222026: March 18Fall at Hernando: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 25, 20% October 30, 30% November 1, 40% November 3, 50% November 5, 60% November 8, 70% November 11, 80% November 15, 90% November 20. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 13, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 23, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 25Nov 5Nov 202021: November 132022: October 182023: October 312024: November 232025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 3November 13
2022April 1October 18
2023March 21October 31
2024March 20November 23
2025March 22November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 25 is the cautious fall date in Hernando for finishing the harvest, reflecting only a 10% chance that a light frost has already arrived. After that point, the risk of a frost that could damage tender crops rises sharply, and planting later than this is a gamble because November 20 carries a 90% chance of a frost earlier than that date.

The 50% dates provide a midpoint of the historical record: the 50% date is March 28 in spring and the 50% date is November 5 in fall. A cautious plan therefore uses April 12 as the spring date for setting out tender crops, when there is a 10% chance of a frost later, and October 25 as the fall date to finish harvesting. The 50% hard-frost dates are March 13 and November 16; these indicate when a 28 °F event is equally likely to have occurred.

A hard frost at 28 °F can kill plant tissue that a light frost at 32 °F may only bruise, making the hard-frost dates especially significant for gardeners.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 12" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Hernando, MSNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Independence, MS — 13 mi; 2 — Memphis (Airport), TN — 17 mi; 3 — West Memphis, AR — 24 mi; 4 — near Cordova, TN — 25 mi; 5 — Helena, AR — 38 mi.ARMSTN25 mi · 40 km1. Independence, MS — 13 mi12. Memphis (Airport), TN — 17 mi23. West Memphis, AR — 24 mi34. near Cordova, TN — 25 mi45. Helena, AR — 38 mi5
  1. Independence, MS 13 mi (21 km)
  2. Memphis (Airport), TN 17 mi (28 km)
  3. West Memphis, AR 24 mi (39 km)
  4. near Cordova, TN 25 mi (41 km)
  5. Helena, AR 38 mi (62 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.8039, -90.0103.