U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00448800 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Wakefield, VA

NOAA weather station Wakefield 1 NW (USC00448800), Virginia · elevation 113 ft (34 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 29only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season200 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Wakefield, VASpring: a frost after March 28 in 9 years out of 10, after April 12 in half of the years, after April 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 200 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 12First frost ~Oct 30Frost season at Wakefield, VASpring: a frost after March 28 in 9 years out of 10, after April 12 in half of the years, after April 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 200 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 12First frost ~Oct 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 29October 16
50% (typical)April 12October 30
90% (likely)March 28November 12
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
200 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 9

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 12 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (2 days later). Frost-free season 201 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Wakefield: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 29, 20% April 22, 30% April 19, 40% April 16, 50% April 12, 60% April 9, 70% April 5, 80% April 1, 90% March 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 11, 2024 April 23, 2025 April 9, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 29Apr 12Mar 282021: April 232022: April 202023: April 112024: April 232025: April 92026: April 21Fall at Wakefield: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 16, 20% October 21, 30% October 25, 40% October 27, 50% October 30, 60% November 1, 70% November 4, 80% November 7, 90% November 12. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 10, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 16Oct 30Nov 122021: November 52022: October 192023: November 12024: November 102025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 5
2022April 20October 19
2023April 11November 1
2024April 23November 10
2025April 9November 11
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 16 marks the cautious fall date in Wakefield for finishing the harvest of tender crops; there is only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived before that day. For a low-risk spring schedule, the cautious date is April 29, when a light frost later than this date is only a 10% possibility, while planting earlier on March 28 carries a 90% gamble.

The 50% dates—April 12 in spring and October 30 in fall—represent the point at which a light frost is equally likely to occur later (spring) or earlier (fall). The hard-frost 50% dates are March 31 and November 9; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue more severely than the milder 32 °F light frost, making it a greater concern for gardeners.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 29" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Wakefield, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Holland, VA — 25 mi; 2 — Hopewell, VA — 26 mi; 3 — Williamsburg, VA — 28 mi; 4 — near Suffolk, VA — 29 mi; 5 — Emporia, VA — 36 mi.VANC25 mi · 40 km1. Holland, VA — 25 mi12. Hopewell, VA — 26 mi23. Williamsburg, VA — 28 mi34. near Suffolk, VA — 29 mi45. Emporia, VA — 36 mi5
  1. Holland, VA 25 mi (40 km)
  2. Hopewell, VA 26 mi (42 km)
  3. Williamsburg, VA 28 mi (44 km)
  4. near Suffolk, VA 29 mi (46 km)
  5. Emporia, VA 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.9839, -77.0078.