U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00444101 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Hopewell, VA

NOAA weather station Hopewell (USC00444101), Virginia · elevation 40 ft (12 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 14only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 3150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season222 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Hopewell, VASpring: a frost after March 14 in 9 years out of 10, after March 31 in half of the years, after April 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 6 in half of the years, before November 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 222 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 31First frost ~Nov 6Frost season at Hopewell, VASpring: a frost after March 14 in 9 years out of 10, after March 31 in half of the years, after April 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 6 in half of the years, before November 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 222 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 31First frost ~Nov 6
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 14October 26
50% (typical)March 31November 6
90% (likely)March 14November 22
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
222 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 18
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 31 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 10 (4 days later). Frost-free season 224 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Hopewell: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 14, 20% April 9, 30% April 5, 40% April 2, 50% March 31, 60% March 28, 70% March 24, 80% March 20, 90% March 14. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2024 February 23.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 14Mar 31Mar 142024: February 23Fall at Hopewell: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 26, 20% October 30, 30% November 1, 40% November 4, 50% November 6, 60% November 9, 70% November 12, 80% November 16, 90% November 22. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2024 November 22, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 26Nov 6Nov 222024: November 222025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordincomplete record
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023incomplete recordincomplete record
2024February 23November 22
2025incomplete recordNovember 11
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

October 26 is the cautious fall date in Hopewell for finishing the harvest of tender crops, because there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. The 50 % date is November 6; at that point there is an even chance that a 32 °F frost will have occurred. In spring the 50 % date is March 31, meaning an even odds of a light frost later than that day, while April 14 serves as the cautious date for setting out tender crops with only a 10 % chance of frost later. March 14 carries a 90 % chance and is a gamble for early planting. Gardeners can use these dates to gauge when the risk of light frost is low enough for tender plants and when it rises.

Hard frost at 28 °F, noted by the median dates March 18 and November 19, can injure plants that survive a 32 °F light frost, so it represents a more severe threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 14" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 26" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Hopewell, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Richmond, VA — 14 mi; 2 — Wakefield, VA — 26 mi; 3 — Williamsburg, VA — 32 mi; 4 — West Point, VA — 32 mi; 5 — Walkerton, VA — 33 mi.MD25 mi · 40 km1. Richmond, VA — 14 mi12. Wakefield, VA — 26 mi23. Williamsburg, VA — 32 mi34. West Point, VA — 32 mi45. Walkerton, VA — 33 mi5
  1. Richmond, VA 14 mi (23 km)
  2. Wakefield, VA 26 mi (42 km)
  3. Williamsburg, VA 32 mi (51 km)
  4. West Point, VA 32 mi (52 km)
  5. Walkerton, VA 33 mi (54 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.2992, -77.2775.