U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00013722 · North Carolina

Frost Dates for Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC

NOAA weather station Raleigh Durham International Airport (USW00013722), North Carolina · elevation 416 ft (127 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 16only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 3150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season219 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NCSpring: a frost after March 15 in 9 years out of 10, after March 31 in half of the years, after April 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 4 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 219 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 31First frost ~Nov 4Frost season at Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NCSpring: a frost after March 15 in 9 years out of 10, after March 31 in half of the years, after April 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 4 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 219 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 31First frost ~Nov 4
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 16October 23
50% (typical)March 31November 4
90% (likely)March 15November 17
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
219 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 18
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 16

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 1 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 6 (2 days later). Frost-free season 220 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport): chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 16, 20% April 11, 30% April 6, 40% April 3, 50% March 31, 60% March 28, 70% March 25, 80% March 21, 90% March 15. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 March 29, 2023 March 21, 2024 February 21, 2025 March 3, 2026 April 9.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 16Mar 31Mar 152021: April 232022: March 292023: March 212024: February 212025: March 32026: April 9Fall at Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport): chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 23, 20% October 28, 30% October 31, 40% November 2, 50% November 4, 60% November 6, 70% November 9, 80% November 13, 90% November 17. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 14, 2022 November 14, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 23Nov 4Nov 172021: November 142022: November 142023: November 22024: November 292025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 14
2022March 29November 14
2023March 21November 2
2024February 21November 29
2025March 3November 11
2026April 9season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 219 days between the 32°F 50% dates—March 31 and November 4—mark the span when a light frost is less likely than not. For a gardener these median dates indicate an even chance of a frost occurring later in spring or earlier in fall, providing a statistical midpoint for planning.

The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is April 16, when there is only a 10 % chance of a light frost after that day; the early-spring gamble date is March 15 with a 90 % chance. In fall the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 23, carrying a 10 % chance of a light frost before then, while November 17 is the high-risk date with a 90 % chance. The 50% hard-frost dates are March 18 and November 16, and a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 16" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Raleigh, NC — 8 mi; 2 — Chapel Hill, NC — 17 mi; 3 — Sanford, NC — 29 mi; 4 — Siler City, NC — 39 mi; 5 — Dunn, NC — 40 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. near Raleigh, NC — 8 mi12. Chapel Hill, NC — 17 mi23. Sanford, NC — 29 mi34. Siler City, NC — 39 mi45. Dunn, NC — 40 mi5
  1. near Raleigh, NC 8 mi (14 km)
  2. Chapel Hill, NC 17 mi (27 km)
  3. Sanford, NC 29 mi (46 km)
  4. Siler City, NC 39 mi (63 km)
  5. Dunn, NC 40 mi (64 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.8922, -78.7819.