U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00312500 · North Carolina

Frost Dates for Dunn, NC

NOAA weather station Dunn 4 NW (USC00312500), North Carolina · elevation 200 ft (61 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 11only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season226 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Dunn, NCSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 23 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 7Frost season at Dunn, NCSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 23 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 7
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 11October 26
50% (typical)March 28November 7
90% (likely)March 9November 23
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
226 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 30 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 6 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 222 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Dunn: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 11, 20% April 6, 30% April 2, 40% March 31, 50% March 28, 60% March 24, 70% March 19, 80% March 15, 90% March 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 3, 2022 March 28, 2023 March 21, 2024 February 22.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 11Mar 28Mar 92021: April 32022: March 282023: March 212024: February 22Fall at Dunn: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 26, 20% October 31, 30% November 2, 40% November 4, 50% November 7, 60% November 9, 70% November 12, 80% November 17, 90% November 23. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 13, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 21.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 26Nov 7Nov 232021: November 132022: October 192023: November 22024: November 21
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 3November 13
2022March 28October 19
2023March 21November 2
2024February 22November 21
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date in Dunn for finishing the harvest is October 26, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. Extending tender crops to November 23 would be a gamble, as a frost is 90 % likely before then.

The 50% date is March 28, meaning there is a 50 % chance of a light frost later than that day, and the 50% date is November 7, meaning a 50 % chance of a light frost earlier than that day. A cautious spring plan would wait until April 11, and a cautious fall plan would finish by October 26.

Hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F, so the median hard-frost dates March 14 and November 19 provide key thresholds for gardeners.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 11" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 26" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Dunn, NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Fayetteville, NC — 21 mi; 2 — Sanford, NC — 25 mi; 3 — near Raleigh, NC — 32 mi; 4 — Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC — 40 mi; 5 — Chapel Hill, NC — 46 mi.NC25 mi · 40 km1. near Fayetteville, NC — 21 mi12. Sanford, NC — 25 mi23. near Raleigh, NC — 32 mi34. Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC — 40 mi45. Chapel Hill, NC — 46 mi5
  1. near Fayetteville, NC 21 mi (33 km)
  2. Sanford, NC 25 mi (40 km)
  3. near Raleigh, NC 32 mi (52 km)
  4. Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC 40 mi (64 km)
  5. Chapel Hill, NC 46 mi (74 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.3244, -78.6878.