U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00311677 · North Carolina

Frost Dates for Chapel Hill, NC

NOAA weather station Chapel Hill 2 W (USC00311677), North Carolina · elevation 500 ft (152 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 14only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 3150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season218 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Chapel Hill, NCSpring: a frost after March 16 in 9 years out of 10, after March 31 in half of the years, after April 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 218 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 31First frost ~Nov 3Frost season at Chapel Hill, NCSpring: a frost after March 16 in 9 years out of 10, after March 31 in half of the years, after April 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 218 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 31First frost ~Nov 3
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 14October 23
50% (typical)March 31November 3
90% (likely)March 16November 19
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
218 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 19
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 14

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 1 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 4 (1 day later). Frost-free season 218 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Chapel Hill: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 14, 20% April 8, 30% April 5, 40% April 2, 50% March 31, 60% March 28, 70% March 25, 80% March 21, 90% March 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 24, 2022 March 30, 2023 March 22, 2024 March 26, 2025 March 28, 2026 March 31.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 14Mar 31Mar 162021: April 242022: March 302023: March 222024: March 262025: March 282026: March 31Fall at Chapel Hill: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 23, 20% October 27, 30% October 30, 40% November 1, 50% November 3, 60% November 5, 70% November 9, 80% November 13, 90% November 19. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 3, 2024 November 22, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 23Nov 3Nov 192021: November 52022: October 192023: November 32024: November 222025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 24November 5
2022March 30October 19
2023March 22November 3
2024March 26November 22
2025March 28November 11
2026March 31season not over yet

What these dates mean

218 days separate the 50% light-frost dates of March 31 and November 3 in Chapel Hill, defining the central window in which tender crops can be expected to avoid a frost under average conditions.

For a cautious spring schedule, the April 14 date carries only a 10 % chance that a light frost will occur later, making it the recommended day to set out tender seedlings; planting on March 16 faces a 90 % chance of a later frost and is therefore a gamble. In the autumn, the October 23 date is the cautious point, with a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived, while November 19 carries a 90 % chance that a frost will already be present, so counting on crops that late is risky. The 50% light-frost dates—March 31 in spring and November 3 in fall—mean an even odds of a frost occurring after or before those days.

A hard frost at 28 °F, indicated by the median dates March 19 and November 14, can damage plants that survive a light 32 °F frost, so its risk is more severe.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 14" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Chapel Hill, NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC — 17 mi; 2 — near Raleigh, NC — 23 mi; 3 — Siler City, NC — 24 mi; 4 — Sanford, NC — 26 mi; 5 — Asheboro, NC — 45 mi.NC25 mi · 40 km1. Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC — 17 mi12. near Raleigh, NC — 23 mi23. Siler City, NC — 24 mi34. Sanford, NC — 26 mi45. Asheboro, NC — 45 mi5
  1. Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC 17 mi (27 km)
  2. near Raleigh, NC 23 mi (37 km)
  3. Siler City, NC 24 mi (38 km)
  4. Sanford, NC 26 mi (42 km)
  5. Asheboro, NC 45 mi (72 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.9086, -79.0794.