U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00296275 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Ocate, NM

NOAA weather station Ocate 2 NW (USC00296275), New Mexico · elevation 7655 ft (2333 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 8only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 2650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostSeptember 2650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season121 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Ocate, NMSpring: a frost after May 11 in 9 years out of 10, after May 26 in half of the years, after June 8 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 13 in 1 year out of 10, before September 26 in half of the years, before October 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 121 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 26First frost ~Sep 26Frost season at Ocate, NMSpring: a frost after May 11 in 9 years out of 10, after May 26 in half of the years, after June 8 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 13 in 1 year out of 10, before September 26 in half of the years, before October 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 121 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 26First frost ~Sep 26
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 8September 13
50% (typical)May 26September 26
90% (likely)May 11October 6
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
121 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 11
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 3

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 24 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost September 29 (3 days later). Frost-free season 126 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Ocate: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 8, 20% June 4, 30% June 1, 40% May 29, 50% May 26, 60% May 23, 70% May 20, 80% May 16, 90% May 11. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 19, 2022 May 31, 2023 May 10, 2024 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1Jun 8May 26May 112021: May 192022: May 312023: May 102024: May 12Fall at Ocate: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 13, 20% September 17, 30% September 21, 40% September 23, 50% September 26, 60% September 28, 70% September 30, 80% October 2, 90% October 6. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 11, 2022 October 9, 2023 October 5.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Sep 13Sep 26Oct 62021: October 112022: October 92023: October 5
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 19October 11
2022May 31October 9
2023May 10October 5
2024May 12incomplete record
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date (May 11) carries a 90 % chance of a light frost later, making it a gamble for Ocate growers. In the fall, counting on tender crops as late as October 6 also involves a 90 % chance of a light frost arriving earlier, so that date is similarly risky.

The 50 % light-frost dates—May 26 in spring and September 26 in fall—mark the point where a frost is equally likely to occur before or after, giving gardeners a balanced reference for risk. A cautious planting schedule therefore uses the June 8 date, which has only a 10 % chance of a later frost, for spring tender crops, and the September 13 date, also with a 10 % chance of an earlier frost, for finishing tender crops in fall.

Hard frosts at 28 °F are more damaging than light frosts at 32 °F, as shown by their 50 % dates of May 11 and October 3, indicating a stronger threat to plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 8" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 13" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Ocate, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Cimarron, NM — 21 mi; 2 — Eagle Nest, NM — 28 mi; 3 — Gascon, NM — 30 mi; 4 — Las Vegas, NM — 37 mi; 5 — Raton, NM — 62 mi.CO25 mi · 40 km1. Cimarron, NM — 21 mi12. Eagle Nest, NM — 28 mi23. Gascon, NM — 30 mi34. Las Vegas, NM — 37 mi45. Raton, NM — 62 mi5
  1. Cimarron, NM 21 mi (33 km)
  2. Eagle Nest, NM 28 mi (45 km)
  3. Gascon, NM 30 mi (48 km)
  4. Las Vegas, NM 37 mi (59 km)
  5. Raton, NM 62 mi (99 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.1839, -105.0608.