U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00297279 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Raton, NM

NOAA weather station Raton Filter Plant (USC00297279), New Mexico · elevation 6932 ft (2113 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 17only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season156 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Raton, NMSpring: a frost after April 22 in 9 years out of 10, after May 5 in half of the years, after May 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 9 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 5First frost ~Oct 9Frost season at Raton, NMSpring: a frost after April 22 in 9 years out of 10, after May 5 in half of the years, after May 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 9 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 5First frost ~Oct 9
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 17September 25
50% (typical)May 5October 9
90% (likely)April 22October 22
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
156 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 25
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 7 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 12 (3 days later). Frost-free season 156 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Raton: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 17, 20% May 13, 30% May 10, 40% May 7, 50% May 5, 60% May 2, 70% April 30, 80% April 27, 90% April 22. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 11, 2022 May 21, 2023 April 29, 2024 April 28, 2025 May 7.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 17May 5Apr 222021: May 112022: May 212023: April 292024: April 282025: May 7Fall at Raton: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 25, 20% October 1, 30% October 4, 40% October 7, 50% October 9, 60% October 13, 70% October 15, 80% October 18, 90% October 22. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2022 October 25, 2023 October 13, 2025 October 28.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 25Oct 9Oct 222022: October 252023: October 132025: October 28
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 11incomplete record
2022May 21October 25
2023April 29October 13
2024April 28incomplete record
2025May 7October 28
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date of April 22 in Raton carries a 90% chance of a frost later, making it a gamble for gardeners. The cautious spring date is May 17, when only a 10% chance of frost remains, while the 50% date is May 5, which simply marks the median odds for a light frost.

For fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is September 25 with a 10% chance of a frost earlier, and the 50% date is October 9. A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F because it can injure plants that would survive the milder temperature. The 50% hard-frost dates are April 25 in spring and October 19 in fall, providing a reference point for the typical timing of severe cold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 17" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Raton, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Trinidad, CO — 24 mi; 2 — Cimarron, NM — 42 mi; 3 — Grenville, NM — 50 mi; 4 — Eagle Nest, NM — 52 mi; 5 — Walsenburg, CO — 53 mi.NM25 mi · 40 km1. near Trinidad, CO — 24 mi12. Cimarron, NM — 42 mi23. Grenville, NM — 50 mi34. Eagle Nest, NM — 52 mi45. Walsenburg, CO — 53 mi5
  1. near Trinidad, CO 24 mi (39 km)
  2. Cimarron, NM 42 mi (68 km)
  3. Grenville, NM 50 mi (81 km)
  4. Eagle Nest, NM 52 mi (84 km)
  5. Walsenburg, CO 53 mi (85 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.9194, -104.4325.