U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00293488 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Gascon, NM

NOAA weather station Gascon (USC00293488), New Mexico · elevation 8250 ft (2515 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 10only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 2850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostSeptember 2650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season119 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Gascon, NMSpring: a frost after May 13 in 9 years out of 10, after May 28 in half of the years, after June 10 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 12 in 1 year out of 10, before September 26 in half of the years, before October 7 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 119 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 28First frost ~Sep 26Frost season at Gascon, NMSpring: a frost after May 13 in 9 years out of 10, after May 28 in half of the years, after June 10 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 12 in 1 year out of 10, before September 26 in half of the years, before October 7 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 119 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 28First frost ~Sep 26
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 10September 12
50% (typical)May 28September 26
90% (likely)May 13October 7
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
119 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 5

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 29 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 1 (5 days later). Frost-free season 121 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Gascon: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 10, 20% June 6, 30% June 3, 40% May 31, 50% May 28, 60% May 25, 70% May 21, 80% May 18, 90% May 13.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1Jun 10May 28May 13Fall at Gascon: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 12, 20% September 16, 30% September 20, 40% September 23, 50% September 26, 60% September 28, 70% October 1, 80% October 3, 90% October 7.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Sep 12Sep 26Oct 7
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

June 10 is the cautious spring date, allowing a gardener to set out tender crops with only a 10% chance of a later frost. The 50% date of May 28 marks the point where a frost is equally likely to occur later, helping schedule planting decisions. The median hard-frost date of May 14 signals when temperatures have a 50% chance of reaching 28 °F, a level that can kill many seedlings.

September 12 is the cautious fall date, indicating when a gardener can finish harvesting tender crops with only a 10% chance that a frost has already arrived. September 26 is the 50% light-frost date, showing an even chance of a frost earlier. The median hard-frost date of October 5 signals a 50% chance of 28 °F, which is more destructive than a 32 °F light frost because it can freeze plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 10" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 12" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Gascon, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Las Vegas, NM — 24 mi; 2 — Ocate, NM — 30 mi; 3 — Santa Fe, NM — 35 mi; 4 — Eagle Nest, NM — 47 mi; 5 — Cimarron, NM — 49 mi.NM25 mi · 40 km1. Las Vegas, NM — 24 mi12. Ocate, NM — 30 mi23. Santa Fe, NM — 35 mi34. Eagle Nest, NM — 47 mi45. Cimarron, NM — 49 mi5
  1. Las Vegas, NM 24 mi (38 km)
  2. Ocate, NM 30 mi (48 km)
  3. Santa Fe, NM 35 mi (56 km)
  4. Eagle Nest, NM 47 mi (76 km)
  5. Cimarron, NM 49 mi (78 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.8917, -105.4481.