U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093738 · Virginia

Frost Dates near Oak Hill, VA

NOAA weather station Washington DC Dulles Airport (USW00093738), Virginia · elevation 290 ft (88 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

Oak Hill is the nearest town to the station (3.5 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 30only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season194 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Oak Hill, VASpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 194 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 24Frost season near Oak Hill, VASpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 194 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 24
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 30October 10
50% (typical)April 15October 24
90% (likely)March 31November 5
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
194 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 1
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 4

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 14 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 27 (3 days later). Frost-free season 198 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Oak Hill: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 30, 20% April 25, 30% April 21, 40% April 18, 50% April 15, 60% April 11, 70% April 7, 80% April 4, 90% March 31. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 9, 2024 March 30, 2025 April 17, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 30Apr 15Mar 312021: April 232022: April 202023: April 92024: March 302025: April 172026: April 21Fall near Oak Hill: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 10, 20% October 14, 30% October 18, 40% October 21, 50% October 24, 60% October 27, 70% October 30, 80% November 1, 90% November 5. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 21, 2023 November 1, 2024 October 28, 2025 October 25.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 10Oct 24Nov 52021: November 32022: October 212023: November 12024: October 282025: October 25
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 3
2022April 20October 21
2023April 9November 1
2024March 30October 28
2025April 17October 25
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 30 is the cautious spring date for the Oak Hill area, carrying only a 10 % chance of a light frost later and letting a gardener schedule the setting out of tender crops with minimal risk. The 50% date is April 15, meaning there is an even chance of a light frost later than this date, while March 31 carries a 90 % chance and would be a gamble for early planting.

For the fall, October 10 is the cautious date, offering only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, so tender crops can be harvested or finished safely. The 50% date is October 24, indicating an even chance of a light frost earlier than this date, and November 5 carries a 90 % chance of a frost before that point.

A hard frost, recorded at 28 °F, is more destructive than a light frost at 32 °F; the median hard-frost dates are April 1 in spring and November 4 in fall, marking when the risk of severe damage reaches 50 %.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 30" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 10" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Oak Hill, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA — 3 mi; 2 — near Arlington, VA — 24 mi; 3 — near Bladensburg, MD — 27 mi; 4 — Beltsville, MD — 29 mi; 5 — Front Royal, VA — 39 mi.VAWV25 mi · 40 km1. near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA — 3 mi12. near Arlington, VA — 24 mi23. near Bladensburg, MD — 27 mi34. Beltsville, MD — 29 mi45. Front Royal, VA — 39 mi5
  1. near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA 3 mi (4 km)
  2. near Arlington, VA 24 mi (39 km)
  3. near Bladensburg, MD 27 mi (43 km)
  4. Beltsville, MD 29 mi (47 km)
  5. Front Royal, VA 39 mi (62 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.9408, -77.4636.