U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00013743 · Virginia

Frost Dates near Arlington, VA

NOAA weather station Washington Reagan Airport (USW00013743), Virginia · elevation 10 ft (3 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

Arlington is the nearest town to the station (4.4 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season241 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Arlington, VASpring: a frost after March 7 in 9 years out of 10, after March 24 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 5 in 1 year out of 10, before November 18 in half of the years, before December 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 241 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 24First frost ~Nov 18Frost season near Arlington, VASpring: a frost after March 7 in 9 years out of 10, after March 24 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 5 in 1 year out of 10, before November 18 in half of the years, before December 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 241 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 24First frost ~Nov 18
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 6November 5
50% (typical)March 24November 18
90% (likely)March 7December 6
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
241 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 12
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 3

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 23 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 19 (1 day later). Frost-free season 242 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Arlington: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 6, 20% April 2, 30% March 30, 40% March 27, 50% March 24, 60% March 21, 70% March 17, 80% March 14, 90% March 7. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 2, 2022 March 29, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 21, 2025 March 3, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 6Mar 24Mar 72021: April 22022: March 292023: March 202024: March 212025: March 32026: March 18Fall near Arlington: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 5, 20% November 8, 30% November 12, 40% November 15, 50% November 18, 60% November 21, 70% November 25, 80% November 30, 90% December 6. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 23, 2022 November 18, 2023 November 28, 2024 November 30, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 5Nov 18Dec 62021: November 232022: November 182023: November 282024: November 302025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 2November 23
2022March 29November 18
2023March 20November 28
2024March 21November 30
2025March 3November 11
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

November 5 is the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops in the Arlington area. It carries a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived, so planning harvest completion by that day keeps the risk low. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 6, which has a 10 % chance of a frost later than that date, while the 90 % gamble date is March 7.

The 50% date is March 24 for spring light frost and November 18 for fall light frost; each represents an even odds of a frost occurring on either side of the date.

The median hard-frost dates are March 12 and December 3; a hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 5" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Arlington, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Bladensburg, MD — 6 mi; 2 — Beltsville, MD — 14 mi; 3 — near Oak Hill, VA — 24 mi; 4 — near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA — 26 mi; 5 — near Baltimore, MD — 29 mi.VAWV25 mi · 40 km1. near Bladensburg, MD — 6 mi12. Beltsville, MD — 14 mi23. near Oak Hill, VA — 24 mi34. near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA — 26 mi45. near Baltimore, MD — 29 mi5
  1. near Bladensburg, MD 6 mi (9 km)
  2. Beltsville, MD 14 mi (22 km)
  3. near Oak Hill, VA 24 mi (39 km)
  4. near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA 26 mi (42 km)
  5. near Baltimore, MD 29 mi (47 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.8483, -77.0342.