U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00034938 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Morrilton, AR

NOAA weather station Morrilton (USC00034938), Arkansas · elevation 340 ft (104 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 15only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 3050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season219 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Morrilton, ARSpring: a frost after March 11 in 9 years out of 10, after March 30 in half of the years, after April 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 19 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 219 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 30First frost ~Nov 2Frost season at Morrilton, ARSpring: a frost after March 11 in 9 years out of 10, after March 30 in half of the years, after April 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 19 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 219 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 30First frost ~Nov 2
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 15October 19
50% (typical)March 30November 2
90% (likely)March 11November 20
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
219 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 14

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 29 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 2. Frost-free season 219 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Morrilton: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 15, 20% April 9, 30% April 5, 40% April 2, 50% March 30, 60% March 26, 70% March 21, 80% March 16, 90% March 11. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 21, 2022 April 9, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 28, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 15Mar 30Mar 112021: April 212022: April 92023: March 212024: March 282025: March 222026: March 18Fall at Morrilton: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 19, 20% October 24, 30% October 28, 40% November 1, 50% November 2, 60% November 5, 70% November 8, 80% November 13, 90% November 20. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 17, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 19Nov 2Nov 202021: November 52022: October 182023: October 312024: October 172025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 21November 5
2022April 9October 18
2023March 21October 31
2024March 28October 17
2025March 22November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 15 is the cautious spring date for Morrilton; with only a 10 % chance of a light frost after that day, a gardener can plan to set out tender crops. The earlier March 11 date carries a 90 % chance of frost and is a gamble, while the median March 30 date marks a 50 % chance of a frost later, indicating equal odds.

October 19 serves as the cautious fall date, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, allowing a gardener to finish harvesting tender crops. The November 2 median date shows an even chance of a frost earlier, and the November 20 date is a gamble with a 90 % chance of frost. The hard-frost 50 % dates are March 14 and November 14; a hard frost at 28 °F can cause far more damage to plant tissue than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 15" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 19" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Morrilton, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Conway, AR — 16 mi; 2 — Dardanelle, AR — 23 mi; 3 — Alum Fork, AR — 25 mi; 4 — near Ola, AR — 26 mi; 5 — Little Rock, AR — 36 mi.AR25 mi · 40 km1. Conway, AR — 16 mi12. Dardanelle, AR — 23 mi23. Alum Fork, AR — 25 mi34. near Ola, AR — 26 mi45. Little Rock, AR — 36 mi5
  1. Conway, AR 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Dardanelle, AR 23 mi (37 km)
  3. Alum Fork, AR 25 mi (41 km)
  4. near Ola, AR 26 mi (42 km)
  5. Little Rock, AR 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.1581, -92.7672.