U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00031596 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Conway, AR

NOAA weather station Conway (USC00031596), Arkansas · elevation 312 ft (95 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 19only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season215 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Conway, ARSpring: a frost after March 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 2 in half of the years, after April 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 215 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 2First frost ~Nov 2Frost season at Conway, ARSpring: a frost after March 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 2 in half of the years, after April 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 215 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 2First frost ~Nov 2
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 19October 20
50% (typical)April 2November 2
90% (likely)March 13November 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
215 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 17
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 11

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 31 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 3 (1 day later). Frost-free season 219 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Conway: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 19, 20% April 13, 30% April 8, 40% April 5, 50% April 2, 60% March 29, 70% March 25, 80% March 20, 90% March 13. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 21, 2022 April 9, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 27, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 19Apr 2Mar 132021: April 212022: April 92023: March 212024: March 272025: March 222026: March 18Fall at Conway: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 20, 20% October 24, 30% October 28, 40% October 31, 50% November 2, 60% November 5, 70% November 7, 80% November 11, 90% November 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 17, 2025 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 20Nov 2Nov 162021: November 42022: October 192023: October 312024: October 172025: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 21November 4
2022April 9October 19
2023March 21October 31
2024March 27October 17
2025March 22November 2
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 20 marks the cautious fall date for Conway, carrying only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, so it is the reference point for finishing the harvest of tender crops.

The 50% spring date is April 2, which represents an even-odds point; there is a 50 % chance of a light frost later than this date. The 50% fall date is November 2, indicating an even-odds point with a 50 % chance of a light frost earlier than this date. For hard frosts, the 50% dates are March 17 and November 11, showing the median moments when temperatures reach 28 °F.

A cautious plan uses April 19 as the spring cautious date (10 % chance of frost later) and October 20 for the fall, keeping the risk of light frost low. Hard frost at 28 °F matters more than a light frost at 32 °F because it can cause far greater damage to plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 19" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 20" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Conway, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Morrilton, AR — 16 mi; 2 — Little Rock, AR — 23 mi; 3 — Alum Fork, AR — 29 mi; 4 — Little Rock (Adams Field), AR — 30 mi; 5 — near Ola, AR — 39 mi.AR25 mi · 40 km1. Morrilton, AR — 16 mi12. Little Rock, AR — 23 mi23. Alum Fork, AR — 29 mi34. Little Rock (Adams Field), AR — 30 mi45. near Ola, AR — 39 mi5
  1. Morrilton, AR 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Little Rock, AR 23 mi (36 km)
  3. Alum Fork, AR 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Little Rock (Adams Field), AR 30 mi (48 km)
  5. near Ola, AR 39 mi (63 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.1033, -92.4903.