U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00031838 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Dardanelle, AR

NOAA weather station Dardanelle (USC00031838), Arkansas · elevation 370 ft (113 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 17only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season215 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Dardanelle, ARSpring: a frost after March 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 22 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 215 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 2Frost season at Dardanelle, ARSpring: a frost after March 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 22 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 215 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 2
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 17October 22
50% (typical)April 1November 2
90% (likely)March 16November 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
215 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 19
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 12

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 29 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 3 (1 day later). Frost-free season 220 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Dardanelle: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 17, 20% April 10, 30% April 6, 40% April 3, 50% April 1, 60% March 29, 70% March 26, 80% March 22, 90% March 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 2, 2022 April 9, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 27, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 17Apr 1Mar 162021: April 22022: April 92023: March 202024: March 272025: March 212026: March 17Fall at Dardanelle: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 22, 20% October 26, 30% October 29, 40% November 1, 50% November 2, 60% November 5, 70% November 8, 80% November 11, 90% November 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 17, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 22Nov 2Nov 162021: November 52022: October 192023: October 312024: October 172025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 2November 5
2022April 9October 19
2023March 20October 31
2024March 27October 17
2025March 21November 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 17 is the cautious spring light-frost date for Dardanelle, Arkansas; with only a 10 % chance of a frost after that day, a gardener can plan to set out tender crops after April 17 with minimal risk. The 50 % date, April 1, marks the point where a frost is equally likely, while the early spring date, March 16, carries a 90 % chance of frost and is a gamble for tender crops. The hard-frost median date, March 19, shows when a 28 °F frost becomes as likely as not in spring.

In fall the cautious light-frost date is October 22, when there is only a 10 % chance that a frost has already arrived, so harvest and final planting of tender crops can be scheduled for or after that date. The 50 % date, November 2, signals even odds for a frost, while the hard-frost median date November 12 shows when a 28 °F frost becomes as likely as not. Because a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that survives a light frost at 32 °F, it represents a more severe threat to tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 17" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 22" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Dardanelle, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Ola, AR — 19 mi; 2 — Morrilton, AR — 23 mi; 3 — Subiaco, AR — 27 mi; 4 — Blue Mountain Dam, AR — 28 mi; 5 — Alum Fork, AR — 35 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. near Ola, AR — 19 mi12. Morrilton, AR — 23 mi23. Subiaco, AR — 27 mi34. Blue Mountain Dam, AR — 28 mi45. Alum Fork, AR — 35 mi5
  1. near Ola, AR 19 mi (31 km)
  2. Morrilton, AR 23 mi (37 km)
  3. Subiaco, AR 27 mi (43 km)
  4. Blue Mountain Dam, AR 28 mi (46 km)
  5. Alum Fork, AR 35 mi (57 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.2342, -93.1675.