U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00036928 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Subiaco, AR

NOAA weather station Subiaco (USC00036928), Arkansas · elevation 500 ft (152 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 14only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season223 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Subiaco, ARSpring: a frost after March 8 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 5 in half of the years, before November 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 5Frost season at Subiaco, ARSpring: a frost after March 8 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 5 in half of the years, before November 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 223 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 5
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 14October 23
50% (typical)March 28November 5
90% (likely)March 8November 22
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
223 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 15

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 23 (5 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 5. Frost-free season 228 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Subiaco: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 14, 20% April 7, 30% April 4, 40% March 31, 50% March 28, 60% March 24, 70% March 19, 80% March 15, 90% March 8. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 3, 2022 April 15, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 28, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 14Mar 28Mar 82021: April 32022: April 152023: March 212024: March 282025: March 222026: March 18Fall at Subiaco: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 23, 20% October 28, 30% October 31, 40% November 2, 50% November 5, 60% November 8, 70% November 11, 80% November 15, 90% November 22. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 27, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 23Nov 5Nov 222021: November 52022: October 192023: October 312024: November 272025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 3November 5
2022April 15October 19
2023March 21October 31
2024March 28November 27
2025March 22November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 23 is the cautious fall date in Subiaco for finishing the harvest; there is only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived before that day, while a later date such as November 22 carries a 90% chance of frost and is a gamble for tender crops. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 14, which has a 10% chance of a light frost occurring later, whereas planting on March 8 would involve a 90% risk.

The 50% dates are March 28 for spring and November 5 for fall; each marks the point at which a light frost is equally likely to have happened or not, giving gardeners a neutral reference for timing. The hard-frost median dates are March 14 in spring and November 15 in fall, and a hard frost matters more than a light frost because the lower temperature can cause far greater damage to plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 14" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Subiaco, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Blue Mountain Dam, AR — 13 mi; 2 — Ozark, AR — 19 mi; 3 — Dardanelle, AR — 27 mi; 4 — near Ola, AR — 36 mi; 5 — Mountainburg, AR — 38 mi.AROK25 mi · 40 km1. Blue Mountain Dam, AR — 13 mi12. Ozark, AR — 19 mi23. Dardanelle, AR — 27 mi34. near Ola, AR — 36 mi45. Mountainburg, AR — 38 mi5
  1. Blue Mountain Dam, AR 13 mi (21 km)
  2. Ozark, AR 19 mi (31 km)
  3. Dardanelle, AR 27 mi (43 km)
  4. near Ola, AR 36 mi (58 km)
  5. Mountainburg, AR 38 mi (61 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.3028, -93.6369.