U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00034638 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Marianna, AR

NOAA weather station Marianna 2 S (USC00034638), Arkansas · elevation 234 ft (71 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 5only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season238 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Marianna, ARSpring: a frost after March 1 in 9 years out of 10, after March 18 in half of the years, after April 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 28 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 238 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 18First frost ~Nov 11Frost season at Marianna, ARSpring: a frost after March 1 in 9 years out of 10, after March 18 in half of the years, after April 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 28 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 238 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 18First frost ~Nov 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 5October 28
50% (typical)March 18November 11
90% (likely)March 1December 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
238 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 7
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 26

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 15 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 10 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 239 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Marianna: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 5, 20% March 31, 30% March 26, 40% March 22, 50% March 18, 60% March 15, 70% March 12, 80% March 7, 90% March 1. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 3, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 19, 2025 March 6, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 5Mar 18Mar 12021: March 32022: March 132023: March 202024: March 192025: March 62026: March 18Fall at Marianna: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 28, 20% November 1, 30% November 5, 40% November 8, 50% November 11, 60% November 16, 70% November 20, 80% November 25, 90% December 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 13, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 28Nov 11Dec 12021: November 132022: October 192023: October 312024: November 292025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 3November 13
2022March 13October 19
2023March 20October 31
2024March 19November 29
2025March 6November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 1 in Marianna is a gamble, because there is a 90% chance of a frost later than this date. The cautious spring date for tender crops is April 5, when only a 10% chance of a frost remains.

The 50% spring date is March 18, representing an even chance of a frost later than this date, while the 50% fall date is November 11, a 50% chance of a frost earlier than this date. For a cautious fall schedule, October 28 is used, carrying only a 10% chance that a frost has arrived earlier.

Hard frosts at 28 °F are more damaging than light frosts at 32 °F, and the 50% hard-frost dates are March 7 and November 26, marking the points where a frost of that severity is equally likely to have occurred.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 5" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 28" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Marianna, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Helena, AR — 18 mi; 2 — Stuttgart, AR — 41 mi; 3 — West Memphis, AR — 43 mi; 4 — Hernando, MS — 43 mi; 5 — Des Arc, AR — 45 mi.ARMSTN25 mi · 40 km1. Helena, AR — 18 mi12. Stuttgart, AR — 41 mi23. West Memphis, AR — 43 mi34. Hernando, MS — 43 mi45. Des Arc, AR — 45 mi5
  1. Helena, AR 18 mi (29 km)
  2. Stuttgart, AR 41 mi (66 km)
  3. West Memphis, AR 43 mi (68 km)
  4. Hernando, MS 43 mi (69 km)
  5. Des Arc, AR 45 mi (72 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.7392, -90.7664.