U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00036920 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Stuttgart, AR

NOAA weather station Stuttgart 9 ESE (USC00036920), Arkansas · elevation 198 ft (60 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 31only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season250 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Stuttgart, ARSpring: a frost after February 21 in 9 years out of 10, after March 11 in half of the years, after March 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 31 in 1 year out of 10, before November 17 in half of the years, before December 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 250 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 11First frost ~Nov 17Frost season at Stuttgart, ARSpring: a frost after February 21 in 9 years out of 10, after March 11 in half of the years, after March 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 31 in 1 year out of 10, before November 17 in half of the years, before December 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 250 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 11First frost ~Nov 17
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 31October 31
50% (typical)March 11November 17
90% (likely)February 21December 6
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
250 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 11 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 16 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 251 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Stuttgart: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 31, 20% March 24, 30% March 18, 40% March 15, 50% March 11, 60% March 7, 70% March 3, 80% February 28, 90% February 21. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 22, 2022 March 14, 2023 March 20, 2024 February 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Mar 31Mar 11Feb 212021: February 222022: March 142023: March 202024: February 19Fall at Stuttgart: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 31, 20% November 5, 30% November 9, 40% November 13, 50% November 17, 60% November 21, 70% November 26, 80% December 1, 90% December 6. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 26, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 28.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 31Nov 17Dec 62021: November 262022: October 192023: November 12024: November 28
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 22November 26
2022March 14October 19
2023March 20November 1
2024February 19November 28
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on February 21 carries a 90% chance of a frost later, so it is a gamble for Stuttgart gardeners.

The 50% dates—March 11 in spring and November 17 in fall—represent the point at which the odds of a light frost are evenly split; a gardener should expect an equal chance of frost occurring after the spring median or before the fall median. The hard-frost 50% dates are February 28 and December 1, marking when a 28 °F frost is as likely as not, a temperature that can damage more tissue than a light frost.

For a cautious plan, the spring light-frost date to aim for is March 31, when only a 10% chance of frost later remains, and the fall counterpart is October 31, when there is only a 10% chance that a frost has arrived earlier. Hard frosts matter more because 28 °F can injure or kill plants that survive the milder 32 °F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 31" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 31" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Stuttgart, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Arkansas Post, AR — 31 mi; 2 — Keo, AR — 34 mi; 3 — Des Arc, AR — 35 mi; 4 — Pine Bluff (Grider Field), AR — 36 mi; 5 — Pine Bluff, AR — 38 mi.MS25 mi · 40 km1. Arkansas Post, AR — 31 mi12. Keo, AR — 34 mi23. Des Arc, AR — 35 mi34. Pine Bluff (Grider Field), AR — 36 mi45. Pine Bluff, AR — 38 mi5
  1. Arkansas Post, AR 31 mi (50 km)
  2. Keo, AR 34 mi (55 km)
  3. Des Arc, AR 35 mi (56 km)
  4. Pine Bluff (Grider Field), AR 36 mi (58 km)
  5. Pine Bluff, AR 38 mi (62 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.4744, -91.4172.