U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00030240 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Arkansas Post, AR

NOAA weather station Arkansas Post (USC00030240), Arkansas · elevation 194 ft (59 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 28only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season251 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Arkansas Post, ARSpring: a frost after February 20 in 9 years out of 10, after March 10 in half of the years, after March 28 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 18 in half of the years, before December 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 251 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 10First frost ~Nov 18Frost season at Arkansas Post, ARSpring: a frost after February 20 in 9 years out of 10, after March 10 in half of the years, after March 28 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 18 in half of the years, before December 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 251 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 10First frost ~Nov 18
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 28November 2
50% (typical)March 10November 18
90% (likely)February 20December 8
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
251 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 2

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 7 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 17 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 253 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Arkansas Post: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 28, 20% March 22, 30% March 17, 40% March 14, 50% March 10, 60% March 6, 70% March 3, 80% February 27, 90% February 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Mar 28Mar 10Feb 202021: February 21Fall at Arkansas Post: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 2, 20% November 7, 30% November 11, 40% November 15, 50% November 18, 60% November 23, 70% November 28, 80% December 2, 90% December 8. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 2Nov 18Dec 82021: November 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21November 19
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023incomplete recordincomplete record
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date for finishing a tender-crop harvest at Arkansas Post is November 2, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived.

In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is March 28, a 10 % chance of a frost later than that day, while February 20 carries a 90 % chance and is a gamble. The 50% light-frost date in spring is March 10, which carries a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date. In fall the cautious date is November 2 and the 90 % gamble date is December 8. The 50% light-frost date in fall is November 18, with a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. The median hard-frost dates are February 28 in spring and December 2 in fall.

Hard frosts at 28 °F can damage tender plants more severely than light frosts at 32 °F, so they are a more critical threshold for growers.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 28" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Arkansas Post, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Rohwer, AR — 15 mi; 2 — Stuttgart, AR — 31 mi; 3 — Dermott, AR — 32 mi; 4 — Pine Bluff (Grider Field), AR — 35 mi; 5 — Monticello, AR — 36 mi.MS25 mi · 40 km1. Rohwer, AR — 15 mi12. Stuttgart, AR — 31 mi23. Dermott, AR — 32 mi34. Pine Bluff (Grider Field), AR — 35 mi45. Monticello, AR — 36 mi5
  1. Rohwer, AR 15 mi (25 km)
  2. Stuttgart, AR 31 mi (50 km)
  3. Dermott, AR 32 mi (52 km)
  4. Pine Bluff (Grider Field), AR 35 mi (57 km)
  5. Monticello, AR 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.025, -91.3444.