U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00255090 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Madrid, NE

NOAA weather station Madrid (USC00255090), Nebraska · elevation 3200 ft (975 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 16only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season156 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Madrid, NESpring: a frost after April 22 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 26 in 1 year out of 10, before October 7 in half of the years, before October 18 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 7Frost season at Madrid, NESpring: a frost after April 22 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 26 in 1 year out of 10, before October 7 in half of the years, before October 18 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 7
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 16September 26
50% (typical)May 4October 7
90% (likely)April 22October 18
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
156 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 16

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 2 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 9 (2 days later). Frost-free season 159 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Madrid: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 16, 20% May 11, 30% May 8, 40% May 6, 50% May 4, 60% May 2, 70% April 30, 80% April 27, 90% April 22.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 16May 4Apr 22Fall at Madrid: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 26, 20% October 1, 30% October 3, 40% October 5, 50% October 7, 60% October 10, 70% October 12, 80% October 15, 90% October 18.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 26Oct 7Oct 18
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

The 156 days between the 50% dates in Madrid, May 4 and October 7, mark the span during which a gardener faces an even odds of a light frost. The 50% date is a reference point, not a frost date, indicating that on that day the chance of a frost later (spring) or earlier (fall) is 50 %.

To follow a cautious plan, the spring light-frost date of May 16 carries only a 10 % chance of a frost later, while the fall light-frost date of September 26 carries a 10 % chance of a frost earlier; both are the low-risk choices for tender crops. A hard frost, recorded at 28 °F, is more consequential than a light frost because it can cause greater plant damage, and its 50% dates are April 24 in spring and October 16 in fall.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 16" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 26" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Madrid, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Wallace, NE — 17 mi; 2 — Ogallala, NE — 21 mi; 3 — Kingsley Dam, NE — 26 mi; 4 — Hershey, NE — 34 mi; 5 — Hayes Center, NE — 35 mi.CO25 mi · 40 km1. Wallace, NE — 17 mi12. Ogallala, NE — 21 mi23. Kingsley Dam, NE — 26 mi34. Hershey, NE — 34 mi45. Hayes Center, NE — 35 mi5
  1. Wallace, NE 17 mi (28 km)
  2. Ogallala, NE 21 mi (34 km)
  3. Kingsley Dam, NE 26 mi (41 km)
  4. Hershey, NE 34 mi (55 km)
  5. Hayes Center, NE 35 mi (56 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.8508, -101.5428.