U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00253810 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Hershey, NE

NOAA weather station Hershey 5 SSE (USC00253810), Nebraska · elevation 2952 ft (900 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 16only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season156 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Hershey, NESpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 23 in 1 year out of 10, before October 9 in half of the years, before October 21 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 9Frost season at Hershey, NESpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 23 in 1 year out of 10, before October 9 in half of the years, before October 21 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 9
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 16September 23
50% (typical)May 4October 9
90% (likely)April 21October 21
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
156 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 2 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 10 (1 day later). Frost-free season 158 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Hershey: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 16, 20% May 12, 30% May 9, 40% May 6, 50% May 4, 60% May 2, 70% April 30, 80% April 26, 90% April 21. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 29, 2022 May 23, 2023 May 3, 2024 May 5, 2025 May 3, 2026 May 3.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 16May 4Apr 212021: April 292022: May 232023: May 32024: May 52025: May 32026: May 3Fall at Hershey: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 23, 20% September 30, 30% October 3, 40% October 6, 50% October 9, 60% October 12, 70% October 14, 80% October 17, 90% October 21. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 15, 2022 October 9, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 14, 2025 October 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 23Oct 9Oct 212021: October 152022: October 92023: October 72024: October 142025: October 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 29October 15
2022May 23October 9
2023May 3October 7
2024May 5October 14
2025May 3October 19
2026May 3season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date of April 21 in Hershey carries a 90% chance of a light frost, so it is a gamble.

A cautious plan waits until the May 16 date, where only a 10% chance of a light frost remains, to place those sensitive plants in the ground. In the fall, the low-risk date to finish harvesting tender crops is September 23, which still leaves a 10% chance of a light frost arriving earlier. The median dates – May 4 in spring and October 9 in fall – mark the point where a light frost is equally likely to occur before or after; they are not frost dates themselves. The hard-frost 50% dates are April 24 and October 19, and a hard frost at 28 °F can injure or kill plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 16" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Hershey, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — near North Platte, NE — 12 mi; 2 — North Platte (Airport), NE — 16 mi; 3 — Wallace, NE — 22 mi; 4 — Stapleton, NE — 31 mi; 5 — Madrid, NE — 34 mi.CO25 mi · 40 km1. near North Platte, NE — 12 mi12. North Platte (Airport), NE — 16 mi23. Wallace, NE — 22 mi34. Stapleton, NE — 31 mi45. Madrid, NE — 34 mi5
  1. near North Platte, NE 12 mi (20 km)
  2. North Platte (Airport), NE 16 mi (26 km)
  3. Wallace, NE 22 mi (35 km)
  4. Stapleton, NE 31 mi (50 km)
  5. Madrid, NE 34 mi (55 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 41.1056, -100.9775.