U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00256200 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Ogallala, NE

NOAA weather station Ogallala (USC00256200), Nebraska · elevation 3230 ft (985 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 12only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season163 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Ogallala, NESpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after May 1 in half of the years, after May 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 12 in half of the years, before October 23 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 163 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 1First frost ~Oct 12Frost season at Ogallala, NESpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after May 1 in half of the years, after May 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 12 in half of the years, before October 23 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 163 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 1First frost ~Oct 12
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 12September 29
50% (typical)May 1October 12
90% (likely)April 16October 23
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
163 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 19
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 21

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 30 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 14 (2 days later). Frost-free season 166 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Ogallala: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 12, 20% May 8, 30% May 5, 40% May 3, 50% May 1, 60% April 29, 70% April 26, 80% April 22, 90% April 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 May 4, 2023 May 2, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 20, 2026 May 2.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 12May 1Apr 162021: May 122022: May 42023: May 22024: April 222025: April 202026: May 2Fall at Ogallala: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 29, 20% October 3, 30% October 7, 40% October 10, 50% October 12, 60% October 15, 70% October 17, 80% October 20, 90% October 23. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 16, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 25, 2025 October 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 29Oct 12Oct 232021: October 162022: October 82023: October 72024: October 252025: October 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 16
2022May 4October 8
2023May 2October 7
2024April 22October 25
2025April 20October 19
2026May 2season not over yet

What these dates mean

The gamble of setting out tender crops on April 16 in Ogallala carries a 90% chance of a frost later that day.

For a more cautious approach, the spring light-frost date with only a 10% chance of a later frost is May 12, while the fall cautious date to finish tender crops is September 29, when there is only a 10% chance that a frost has already arrived. The 50% light-frost dates are May 1 in spring and October 12 in fall; at each of those dates there is an even chance of a frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). The hard-frost 50% dates are April 19 and October 21, marking when a 28 °F frost is equally likely.

A hard frost at 28 °F matters more than a light frost at 32 °F because the lower temperature can damage plant tissue that would survive a light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 12" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Ogallala, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Kingsley Dam, NE — 6 mi; 2 — Madrid, NE — 21 mi; 3 — Arthur, NE — 31 mi; 4 — Wallace, NE — 33 mi; 5 — Oshkosh, NE — 38 mi.CO25 mi · 40 km1. Kingsley Dam, NE — 6 mi12. Madrid, NE — 21 mi23. Arthur, NE — 31 mi34. Wallace, NE — 33 mi45. Oshkosh, NE — 38 mi5
  1. Kingsley Dam, NE 6 mi (10 km)
  2. Madrid, NE 21 mi (34 km)
  3. Arthur, NE 31 mi (49 km)
  4. Wallace, NE 33 mi (53 km)
  5. Oshkosh, NE 38 mi (61 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 41.1275, -101.7206.