U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00003962 · Arkansas

Frost Dates near Hot Springs, AR

NOAA weather station Hot Springs Asos (USW00003962), Arkansas · elevation 535 ft (163 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

Hot Springs is the nearest town to the station (14.8 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season230 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Hot Springs, ARSpring: a frost after March 3 in 9 years out of 10, after March 24 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 9 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 230 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 24First frost ~Nov 9Frost season near Hot Springs, ARSpring: a frost after March 3 in 9 years out of 10, after March 24 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 9 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 230 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 24First frost ~Nov 9
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 13October 26
50% (typical)March 24November 9
90% (likely)March 3November 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
230 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 8
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 21

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 17 (7 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 10 (1 day later). Frost-free season 238 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Hot Springs: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 13, 20% April 6, 30% April 2, 40% March 29, 50% March 24, 60% March 19, 70% March 15, 80% March 9, 90% March 3. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 21, 2022 April 9, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 19, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 13Mar 24Mar 32021: April 212022: April 92023: March 202024: March 192025: March 212026: March 17Fall near Hot Springs: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 26, 20% October 31, 30% November 3, 40% November 6, 50% November 9, 60% November 12, 70% November 16, 80% November 20, 90% November 26. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 26Nov 9Nov 262021: November 42022: October 192023: October 312024: November 292025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 21November 4
2022April 9October 19
2023March 20October 31
2024March 19November 29
2025March 21November 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date of March 3 in the Hot Springs area carries a 90% chance that a light frost will occur later, making it a gamble. The cautious spring date is April 13, when only a 10% chance of a later light frost remains. The 50% date is March 24, marking an even-odds point for a light frost in spring.

In fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 26, with just a 10% chance that a light frost has already arrived. Counting on crops through November 26 is a gamble because a 90% chance of an earlier light frost exists. The 50% date is November 9, the median point for fall light frost. The 50% hard-frost dates are March 8 and November 21, and hard frost at 28°F can kill plants that survive the milder 32°F light frost, so it matters more.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 26" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Hot Springs, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Alum Fork, AR — 37 mi; 2 — Sheridan, AR — 38 mi; 3 — near Ola, AR — 46 mi; 4 — Hope, AR — 49 mi; 5 — Fordyce, AR — 50 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Alum Fork, AR — 37 mi12. Sheridan, AR — 38 mi23. near Ola, AR — 46 mi34. Hope, AR — 49 mi45. Fordyce, AR — 50 mi5
  1. Alum Fork, AR 37 mi (60 km)
  2. Sheridan, AR 38 mi (61 km)
  3. near Ola, AR 46 mi (75 km)
  4. Hope, AR 49 mi (79 km)
  5. Fordyce, AR 50 mi (80 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.29, -93.06.