U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00032540 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Fordyce, AR

NOAA weather station Fordyce (USC00032540), Arkansas · elevation 230 ft (70 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season226 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Fordyce, ARSpring: a frost after March 6 in 9 years out of 10, after March 26 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 24 in 1 year out of 10, before November 6 in half of the years, before November 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 26First frost ~Nov 6Frost season at Fordyce, ARSpring: a frost after March 6 in 9 years out of 10, after March 26 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 24 in 1 year out of 10, before November 6 in half of the years, before November 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 26First frost ~Nov 6
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 13October 24
50% (typical)March 26November 6
90% (likely)March 6November 24
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
226 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 10
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 24 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 7 (1 day later). Frost-free season 231 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Fordyce: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 13, 20% April 7, 30% April 3, 40% March 30, 50% March 26, 60% March 22, 70% March 18, 80% March 14, 90% March 6. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 2, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 20, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 13Mar 26Mar 62021: April 22022: March 132023: March 212024: March 202026: March 18Fall at Fordyce: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 24, 20% October 29, 30% November 1, 40% November 4, 50% November 6, 60% November 9, 70% November 13, 80% November 18, 90% November 24. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 1, 2024 December 3, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 24Nov 6Nov 242021: November 52022: October 192023: November 12024: December 32025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 2November 5
2022March 13October 19
2023March 21November 1
2024March 20December 3
2025incomplete recordNovember 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting tender crops in the garden on March 6 in Fordyce carries a 90 % chance that a light frost will still occur later that season, so planting then is a gamble. Gardeners who prefer a lower risk wait until the cautious spring date of April 13, which has only a 10 % chance of a frost later, and they aim to finish harvest of tender crops by the cautious fall date of October 24, when there is only a 10 % chance a frost has arrived earlier.

The 50 % light-frost dates are March 26 and November 6. On March 26 there is a 50 % chance of a frost later than that day, and on November 6 there is a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than that day, giving growers an even-odds reference for timing activities.

Hard frost, defined at 28 °F, is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F because the lower temperature can freeze plant tissue that would survive a milder chill.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 24" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Fordyce, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Camden, AR — 29 mi; 2 — Sheridan, AR — 33 mi; 3 — Pine Bluff, AR — 35 mi; 4 — Calion Lock and Dam, AR — 36 mi; 5 — Pine Bluff (Grider Field), AR — 36 mi.MS25 mi · 40 km1. Camden, AR — 29 mi12. Sheridan, AR — 33 mi23. Pine Bluff, AR — 35 mi34. Calion Lock and Dam, AR — 36 mi45. Pine Bluff (Grider Field), AR — 36 mi5
  1. Camden, AR 29 mi (47 km)
  2. Sheridan, AR 33 mi (53 km)
  3. Pine Bluff, AR 35 mi (57 km)
  4. Calion Lock and Dam, AR 36 mi (58 km)
  5. Pine Bluff (Grider Field), AR 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.8228, -92.3989.