U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00033428 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Hope, AR

NOAA weather station Hope 3 NE (USC00033428), Arkansas · elevation 375 ft (114 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season226 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Hope, ARSpring: a frost after March 5 in 9 years out of 10, after March 26 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 6 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 26First frost ~Nov 6Frost season at Hope, ARSpring: a frost after March 5 in 9 years out of 10, after March 26 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 6 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 26First frost ~Nov 6
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 13October 23
50% (typical)March 26November 6
90% (likely)March 5November 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
226 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 11
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 17

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 26 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 5 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 227 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Hope: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 13, 20% April 7, 30% April 3, 40% March 31, 50% March 26, 60% March 23, 70% March 18, 80% March 13, 90% March 5. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 9, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 20, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 13Mar 26Mar 52021: April 222022: April 92023: March 212024: March 202025: March 222026: March 18Fall at Hope: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 23, 20% October 29, 30% November 1, 40% November 3, 50% November 6, 60% November 9, 70% November 13, 80% November 18, 90% November 26. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 23Nov 6Nov 262021: November 52022: October 192023: October 312024: November 292025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 5
2022April 9October 19
2023March 21October 31
2024March 20November 29
2025March 22November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on March 5 in Hope carries a 90% chance of a frost later that season, making it a gamble for growers. The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is April 13, when only 10% of the recorded years experienced a frost after that day.

The 50% spring date, March 26, marks an even chance that a light frost will occur later, while the 50% fall date, November 6, marks an even chance that a light frost will have occurred earlier. For hard frosts, the median dates are March 11 in spring and November 17 in fall, indicating a 50% likelihood of temperatures reaching 28 °F. The cautious fall date for finishing tender crops is October 23, when there is only a 10% chance a frost has already arrived. Hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants that survive a 32 °F light frost, so it represents a more severe threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Hope, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Texarkana, TX — 35 mi; 2 — Camden, AR — 43 mi; 3 — near Hot Springs, AR — 49 mi; 4 — Dequeen, AR — 51 mi; 5 — near El Dorado, AR — 54 mi.ARTXOK25 mi · 40 km1. Texarkana, TX — 35 mi12. Camden, AR — 43 mi23. near Hot Springs, AR — 49 mi34. Dequeen, AR — 51 mi45. near El Dorado, AR — 54 mi5
  1. Texarkana, TX 35 mi (57 km)
  2. Camden, AR 43 mi (69 km)
  3. near Hot Springs, AR 49 mi (79 km)
  4. Dequeen, AR 51 mi (82 km)
  5. near El Dorado, AR 54 mi (88 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.7092, -93.5564.