U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00295960 · New Mexico

Frost Dates near Alamogordo, NM

NOAA weather station Mountain Park (USC00295960), New Mexico · elevation 6804 ft (2074 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

Alamogordo is the nearest town to the station (8.8 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 15only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 3050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season173 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Alamogordo, NMSpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 30 in half of the years, after May 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 9 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 173 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 30First frost ~Oct 21Frost season near Alamogordo, NMSpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 30 in half of the years, after May 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 9 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 173 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 30First frost ~Oct 21
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 15October 9
50% (typical)April 30October 21
90% (likely)April 16November 4
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
173 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 20
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 30

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 3 (3 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 24 (3 days later). Frost-free season 174 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Alamogordo: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 15, 20% May 10, 30% May 6, 40% May 3, 50% April 30, 60% April 27, 70% April 24, 80% April 21, 90% April 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 29, 2022 April 14, 2023 May 11, 2024 April 28, 2025 May 6, 2026 March 28.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 15Apr 30Apr 162021: April 292022: April 142023: May 112024: April 282025: May 62026: March 28Fall near Alamogordo: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 9, 20% October 13, 30% October 16, 40% October 19, 50% October 21, 60% October 23, 70% October 26, 80% October 30, 90% November 4. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 27, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 30, 2024 October 31, 2025 October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 9Oct 21Nov 42021: October 272022: October 192023: October 302024: October 312025: October 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 29October 27
2022April 14October 19
2023May 11October 30
2024April 28October 31
2025May 6October 29
2026March 28season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 173 days between the 32°F 50% dates, April 30 and October 21, mark the interval in which tender crops can be grown in the Alamogordo area. Within that span, the median light-frost dates are April 30 and October 21, which simply indicate even odds of a frost occurring.

Gardeners who prefer a low risk will wait until the cautious spring date of May 15 before setting out tender crops, while the cautious fall date of October 9 signals when to finish harvesting them. The median hard-frost dates are April 20 and October 30, and a hard frost at 28°F can damage plant tissue more severely than a light frost at 32°F, making those dates an additional consideration. These probabilities are based on 26 years of NOAA normals.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 15" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 9" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Alamogordo, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Elk, NM — 28 mi; 2 — Bingham, NM — 73 mi; 3 — near Roswell, NM — 80 mi; 4 — Artesia, NM — 85 mi; 5 — Gran Quivira National Monument, NM — 92 mi.NM50 mi · 80 km1. Elk, NM — 28 mi12. Bingham, NM — 73 mi23. near Roswell, NM — 80 mi34. Artesia, NM — 85 mi45. Gran Quivira National Monument, NM — 92 mi5
  1. Elk, NM 28 mi (45 km)
  2. Bingham, NM 73 mi (117 km)
  3. near Roswell, NM 80 mi (129 km)
  4. Artesia, NM 85 mi (136 km)
  5. Gran Quivira National Monument, NM 92 mi (147 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.9539, -105.8225.