U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00293649 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Gran Quivira National Monument, NM

NOAA weather station Gran Quivira National Monument (USC00293649), New Mexico · elevation 6600 ft (2012 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 15only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season164 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Gran Quivira National Monument, NMSpring: a frost after April 19 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 164 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 15Frost season at Gran Quivira National Monument, NMSpring: a frost after April 19 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 164 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 15
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 15October 1
50% (typical)May 2October 15
90% (likely)April 19October 28
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
164 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 24

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 2 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 16 (1 day later). Frost-free season 167 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Gran Quivira National Monument: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 15, 20% May 11, 30% May 7, 40% May 4, 50% May 2, 60% April 29, 70% April 27, 80% April 23, 90% April 19. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2023 May 15.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 15May 2Apr 192023: May 15Fall at Gran Quivira National Monument: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 1, 20% October 5, 30% October 9, 40% October 12, 50% October 15, 60% October 18, 70% October 20, 80% October 23, 90% October 28. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2022 October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 1Oct 15Oct 282022: October 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordincomplete record
2022incomplete recordOctober 24
2023May 15incomplete record
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

May 15 is the cautious spring light-frost date; it gives a gardener enough confidence to set out tender crops. Only a 10% chance of a frost later than May 15 means the risk is low enough for planting.

The 50% light-frost dates are May 2 in spring and October 15 in fall; each marks an even-odds point for frost, not a frost cutoff. October 1 is the cautious fall light-frost date, indicating only a 10% chance that a frost has arrived earlier, suitable for finishing harvest of tender crops. The 50% hard-frost dates are April 21 in spring and October 24 in fall, indicating the median timing when 28 °F is reached. Hard frosts at 28 °F are more damaging than light frosts at 32 °F because they can kill or severely injure tender plant tissue. The interval between the two 32°F 50% dates spans 164 days, based on a 27-year record.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 15" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Gran Quivira National Monument, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Bingham, NM — 28 mi; 2 — Pedernal, NM — 43 mi; 3 — Albuquerque, NM — 62 mi; 4 — Albuquerque Valley, NM — 63 mi; 5 — Dilia, NM — 87 mi.NM25 mi · 40 km1. Bingham, NM — 28 mi12. Pedernal, NM — 43 mi23. Albuquerque, NM — 62 mi34. Albuquerque Valley, NM — 63 mi45. Dilia, NM — 87 mi5
  1. Bingham, NM 28 mi (45 km)
  2. Pedernal, NM 43 mi (69 km)
  3. Albuquerque, NM 62 mi (99 km)
  4. Albuquerque Valley, NM 63 mi (101 km)
  5. Dilia, NM 87 mi (140 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.2594, -106.0931.