U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00448894 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Warsaw, VA

NOAA weather station Warsaw 2 NW (USC00448894), Virginia · elevation 140 ft (43 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season204 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Warsaw, VASpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 8 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 15 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 204 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 8First frost ~Oct 30Frost season at Warsaw, VASpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 8 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 15 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 204 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 8First frost ~Oct 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 23October 15
50% (typical)April 8October 30
90% (likely)March 26November 12
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
204 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 29
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 10

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (2 days later). Frost-free season 206 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Warsaw: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 23, 20% April 18, 30% April 14, 40% April 11, 50% April 8, 60% April 5, 70% April 3, 80% March 31, 90% March 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 10, 2024 March 26, 2025 April 9, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 23Apr 8Mar 262021: April 222022: April 202023: April 102024: March 262025: April 92026: April 21Fall at Warsaw: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 15, 20% October 21, 30% October 24, 40% October 27, 50% October 30, 60% November 1, 70% November 4, 80% November 7, 90% November 12. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 20, 2023 November 2, 2024 October 28, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 15Oct 30Nov 122021: November 52022: October 202023: November 22024: October 282025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 5
2022April 20October 20
2023April 10November 2
2024March 26October 28
2025April 9November 11
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 23 is the cautious spring date for light frost (32 °F) in Warsaw, Virginia; on that day there is only a 10 % chance of a frost later, so a gardener can plan to set out tender crops with relatively low risk.

The 50% date for light frost is April 8, indicating equal odds of frost occurring, and the fall 50% date is October 30. The cautious fall date is October 15, when there is only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier, allowing the gardener to finish harvesting tender crops. The 50% hard-frost dates are March 29 in spring and November 10 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would survive a light frost at 32 °F, making it a more severe threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 15" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Warsaw, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Walkerton, VA — 22 mi; 2 — near Lexington Park, MD — 29 mi; 3 — West Point, VA — 29 mi; 4 — Mechanicsville, MD — 35 mi; 5 — Ashland, VA — 42 mi.VAMDDE25 mi · 40 km1. Walkerton, VA — 22 mi12. near Lexington Park, MD — 29 mi23. West Point, VA — 29 mi34. Mechanicsville, MD — 35 mi45. Ashland, VA — 42 mi5
  1. Walkerton, VA 22 mi (36 km)
  2. near Lexington Park, MD 29 mi (47 km)
  3. West Point, VA 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Mechanicsville, MD 35 mi (56 km)
  5. Ashland, VA 42 mi (67 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.9881, -76.7769.