U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00440327 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Ashland, VA

NOAA weather station Ashland (USC00440327), Virginia · elevation 220 ft (67 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 30only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season201 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Ashland, VASpring: a frost after March 28 in 9 years out of 10, after April 10 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 201 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 10First frost ~Oct 29Frost season at Ashland, VASpring: a frost after March 28 in 9 years out of 10, after April 10 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 201 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 10First frost ~Oct 29
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 30October 16
50% (typical)April 10October 29
90% (likely)March 28November 10
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
201 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 30
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 8

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (3 days later). Frost-free season 206 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Ashland: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 30, 20% April 21, 30% April 17, 40% April 14, 50% April 10, 60% April 7, 70% April 4, 80% April 1, 90% March 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 10, 2024 April 6, 2025 April 9, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 30Apr 10Mar 282021: April 222022: April 202023: April 102024: April 62025: April 92026: April 21Fall at Ashland: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 16, 20% October 21, 30% October 24, 40% October 26, 50% October 29, 60% November 1, 70% November 3, 80% November 5, 90% November 10. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 20, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 13, 2025 October 25.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 16Oct 29Nov 102021: November 52022: October 202023: November 22024: November 132025: October 25
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 5
2022April 20October 20
2023April 10November 2
2024April 6November 13
2025April 9October 25
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 30 is the cautious spring light-frost date for Ashland, Virginia; it marks the point when only a 10 % chance remains of a frost later, so gardeners can set out tender crops with relatively low risk. The median light-frost date of April 10 indicates an even-odds (50 %) chance of a frost occurring later, while March 28 carries a 90 % chance and would be a gamble for early planting.

In the fall, October 16 is the cautious date, offering only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier, which guides gardeners in finishing harvest of tender crops. The median light-frost date of October 29 likewise represents a 50 % likelihood of a frost having occurred earlier. Hard-frost dates—March 30 in spring and November 8 in fall—show when temperatures of 28 °F are equally likely, and they matter more than the 32 °F light-frost dates because a hard frost can cause far greater damage to plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 30" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Ashland, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Richmond, VA — 19 mi; 2 — Walkerton, VA — 24 mi; 3 — Hopewell, VA — 33 mi; 4 — Louisa, VA — 35 mi; 5 — West Point, VA — 40 mi.VAMD25 mi · 40 km1. Richmond, VA — 19 mi12. Walkerton, VA — 24 mi23. Hopewell, VA — 33 mi34. Louisa, VA — 35 mi45. West Point, VA — 40 mi5
  1. Richmond, VA 19 mi (31 km)
  2. Walkerton, VA 24 mi (39 km)
  3. Hopewell, VA 33 mi (54 km)
  4. Louisa, VA 35 mi (56 km)
  5. West Point, VA 40 mi (64 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.755, -77.4853.