U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00308962 · New York

Frost Dates for Warsaw, NY

NOAA weather station Warsaw 6 SW (USC00308962), New York · elevation 1820 ft (555 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 22only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season156 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Warsaw, NYSpring: a frost after April 24 in 9 years out of 10, after May 7 in half of the years, after May 22 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 27 in 1 year out of 10, before October 10 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 7First frost ~Oct 10Frost season at Warsaw, NYSpring: a frost after April 24 in 9 years out of 10, after May 7 in half of the years, after May 22 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 27 in 1 year out of 10, before October 10 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 7First frost ~Oct 10
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 22September 27
50% (typical)May 7October 10
90% (likely)April 24October 27
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
156 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 27

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 6 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 20 (10 days later). Frost-free season 165 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Warsaw: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 22, 20% May 18, 30% May 13, 40% May 10, 50% May 7, 60% May 4, 70% May 1, 80% April 29, 90% April 24. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 11, 2022 April 30, 2023 May 18, 2024 April 26, 2025 April 18, 2026 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 22May 7Apr 242021: May 112022: April 302023: May 182024: April 262025: April 182026: May 12Fall at Warsaw: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 27, 20% October 1, 30% October 4, 40% October 7, 50% October 10, 60% October 14, 70% October 19, 80% October 22, 90% October 27. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 2, 2022 October 28, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 17, 2025 October 26.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 27Oct 10Oct 272021: November 22022: October 282023: October 232024: October 172025: October 26
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 11November 2
2022April 30October 28
2023May 18October 23
2024April 26October 17
2025April 18October 26
2026May 12season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 22, with only a 10 % chance of a light frost later, is the cautious spring date for setting out tender crops in Warsaw. This date gives gardeners confidence to move seedlings outdoors. In the fall, the cautious date is September 27, which carries a 10 % chance of a light frost earlier and marks a safe point to finish harvesting tender crops.

The 50 % light-frost date in spring is May 7, meaning there is a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date, while the 50 % light-frost date in fall is October 10, with a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. The median hard-frost date in spring is April 28, a 50 % chance of a hard frost later than this date, and the median hard-frost date in fall is October 27, a 50 % chance of a hard frost earlier than this date.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F because the lower temperature reaches a critical threshold for plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 22" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Warsaw, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Wales, NY — 19 mi; 2 — Batavia, NY — 24 mi; 3 — Dansville, NY — 27 mi; 4 — Franklinville, NY — 28 mi; 5 — Angelica, NY — 28 mi.PA25 mi · 40 km1. Wales, NY — 19 mi12. Batavia, NY — 24 mi23. Dansville, NY — 27 mi34. Franklinville, NY — 28 mi45. Angelica, NY — 28 mi5
  1. Wales, NY 19 mi (31 km)
  2. Batavia, NY 24 mi (38 km)
  3. Dansville, NY 27 mi (43 km)
  4. Franklinville, NY 28 mi (44 km)
  5. Angelica, NY 28 mi (45 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.6856, -78.2203.