U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00308910 · New York

Frost Dates for Wales, NY

NOAA weather station Wales (USC00308910), New York · elevation 1135 ft (346 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season155 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Wales, NYSpring: a frost after April 25 in 9 years out of 10, after May 7 in half of the years, after May 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 27 in 1 year out of 10, before October 10 in half of the years, before October 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 155 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 7First frost ~Oct 10Frost season at Wales, NYSpring: a frost after April 25 in 9 years out of 10, after May 7 in half of the years, after May 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 27 in 1 year out of 10, before October 10 in half of the years, before October 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 155 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 7First frost ~Oct 10
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 23September 27
50% (typical)May 7October 10
90% (likely)April 25October 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
155 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 24

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 5 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 17 (7 days later). Frost-free season 161 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Wales: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 23, 20% May 17, 30% May 14, 40% May 10, 50% May 7, 60% May 4, 70% May 1, 80% April 29, 90% April 25. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 27, 2022 May 1, 2023 May 18, 2024 April 27, 2025 May 10, 2026 May 13.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 23May 7Apr 252021: April 272022: May 12023: May 182024: April 272025: May 102026: May 13Fall at Wales: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 27, 20% October 1, 30% October 4, 40% October 7, 50% October 10, 60% October 13, 70% October 17, 80% October 20, 90% October 26. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 28, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 17, 2025 October 16.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 27Oct 10Oct 262021: November 42022: October 282023: October 232024: October 172025: October 16
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 27November 4
2022May 1October 28
2023May 18October 23
2024April 27October 17
2025May 10October 16
2026May 13season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 23 is the cautious spring date, giving a gardener the confidence to set out tender crops because only a 10 % chance of a light frost remains after that day. The counterpart in fall is September 27, the cautious date that marks when there is only a 10 % chance a light frost has already arrived, allowing the final harvest of tender crops.

The 50% dates provide the point of even odds for a light frost: May 7 in spring and October 10 in fall. At those dates a gardener can expect a 50 % chance of a frost later (spring) or earlier (fall), which helps gauge the middle of the frost-risk window. The hard-frost median dates are April 28 for spring and October 24 for fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage or kill plants that would otherwise survive a light frost at 32 °F. The record spans 30 years and the interval between the two 32 °F 50% dates is 155 days.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Wales, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Buffalo, NY — 16 mi; 2 — Warsaw, NY — 19 mi; 3 — Franklinville, NY — 29 mi; 4 — Batavia, NY — 29 mi; 5 — Little Valley, NY — 36 mi.PA25 mi · 40 km1. Buffalo, NY — 16 mi12. Warsaw, NY — 19 mi23. Franklinville, NY — 29 mi34. Batavia, NY — 29 mi45. Little Valley, NY — 36 mi5
  1. Buffalo, NY 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Warsaw, NY 19 mi (31 km)
  3. Franklinville, NY 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Batavia, NY 29 mi (47 km)
  5. Little Valley, NY 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.7392, -78.5878.