U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00238577 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Vandalia, MO

NOAA weather station Vandalia (USC00238577), Missouri · elevation 764 ft (233 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 25only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season192 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Vandalia, MOSpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 192 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 23Frost season at Vandalia, MOSpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 192 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 23
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 25October 7
50% (typical)April 11October 23
90% (likely)March 31November 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
192 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 1
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 12 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 22 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 192 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Vandalia: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 25, 20% April 20, 30% April 18, 40% April 13, 50% April 11, 60% April 8, 70% April 6, 80% April 3, 90% March 31. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 6, 2025 April 9, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 25Apr 11Mar 312021: April 232022: April 202023: April 242024: April 62025: April 92026: March 29Fall at Vandalia: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 7, 20% October 14, 30% October 17, 40% October 20, 50% October 23, 60% October 25, 70% October 27, 80% October 31, 90% November 3. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 30, 2025 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 7Oct 23Nov 32021: November 32022: October 182023: October 302025: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 3
2022April 20October 18
2023April 24October 30
2024April 6incomplete record
2025April 9November 2
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 25 is the cautious spring date, offering only a ten percent chance that a light frost will occur later and allowing a gardener to set out tender crops with relatively low risk.

The median point for a spring light frost is April 11; at that date there is an even fifty-fifty chance of a frost, so a gardener can treat it as a pivot for risk assessment. In fall the cautious date is October 7, when there is only a ten percent chance that a light frost has already arrived, making it a reliable target for finishing harvest of tender crops. The median fall light-frost date is October 23, likewise marking a fifty percent probability.

A hard frost, recorded at twenty-eight degrees Fahrenheit, is more damaging than a light frost at thirty-two degrees, so the April 1 and November 1 hard-frost median dates are important reference points for gardeners.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 25" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 7" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Vandalia, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Saverton Lock and Dam 22, MO — 26 mi; 2 — Hannibal, MO — 29 mi; 3 — Shelbina, MO — 39 mi; 4 — Elsberry, MO — 39 mi; 5 — Quincy Dam 21, IL — 41 mi.MOIL25 mi · 40 km1. Saverton Lock and Dam 22, MO — 26 mi12. Hannibal, MO — 29 mi23. Shelbina, MO — 39 mi34. Elsberry, MO — 39 mi45. Quincy Dam 21, IL — 41 mi5
  1. Saverton Lock and Dam 22, MO 26 mi (42 km)
  2. Hannibal, MO 29 mi (47 km)
  3. Shelbina, MO 39 mi (63 km)
  4. Elsberry, MO 39 mi (63 km)
  5. Quincy Dam 21, IL 41 mi (67 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.3075, -91.4925.