U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00237720 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Shelbina, MO

NOAA weather station Shelbina (USC00237720), Missouri · elevation 747 ft (228 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 5only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season177 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Shelbina, MOSpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 21 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 17 in half of the years, before October 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 177 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 21First frost ~Oct 17Frost season at Shelbina, MOSpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 21 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 17 in half of the years, before October 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 177 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 21First frost ~Oct 17
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 5October 2
50% (typical)April 21October 17
90% (likely)April 9October 30
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
177 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 11
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 28

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 22 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 18 (1 day later). Frost-free season 177 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Shelbina: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 5, 20% April 30, 30% April 27, 40% April 23, 50% April 21, 60% April 18, 70% April 16, 80% April 13, 90% April 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 27, 2023 April 25, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 12, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 5Apr 21Apr 92021: April 232022: April 272023: April 252024: April 222025: April 122026: March 29Fall at Shelbina: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 2, 20% October 6, 30% October 11, 40% October 14, 50% October 17, 60% October 20, 70% October 22, 80% October 26, 90% October 30. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 2, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 28, 2024 October 16, 2025 October 23.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 2Oct 17Oct 302021: November 22022: October 82023: October 282024: October 162025: October 23
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 2
2022April 27October 8
2023April 25October 28
2024April 22October 16
2025April 12October 23
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 32°F 50% dates in Shelbina are April 21 and October 17, leaving a span of 177 days between them.

Each 50% date marks the point at which a frost is equally likely to have occurred or not, serving as a neutral reference rather than a frost date. The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is May 5, when only a 10% chance of a later frost remains, and the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 2, which carries a 10% chance of an earlier frost.

A hard frost at 28 °F can kill plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, so the 28 °F median dates of April 11 and October 28 represent a more critical threshold for garden planning.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 5" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Shelbina, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Steffenville, MO — 22 mi; 2 — near Macon, MO — 25 mi; 3 — Moberly, MO — 28 mi; 4 — Hannibal, MO — 36 mi; 5 — Quincy Dam 21, IL — 36 mi.IL25 mi · 40 km1. Steffenville, MO — 22 mi12. near Macon, MO — 25 mi23. Moberly, MO — 28 mi34. Hannibal, MO — 36 mi45. Quincy Dam 21, IL — 36 mi5
  1. Steffenville, MO 22 mi (35 km)
  2. near Macon, MO 25 mi (40 km)
  3. Moberly, MO 28 mi (44 km)
  4. Hannibal, MO 36 mi (58 km)
  5. Quincy Dam 21, IL 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.6828, -92.0464.