U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00229079 · Mississippi

Frost Dates for University, MS

NOAA weather station University (USC00229079), Mississippi · elevation 408 ft (124 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 21only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season210 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at University, MSSpring: a frost after March 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 3 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 31 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 210 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 3First frost ~Oct 31Frost season at University, MSSpring: a frost after March 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 3 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 31 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 210 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 3First frost ~Oct 31
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 21October 18
50% (typical)April 3October 31
90% (likely)March 13November 17
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
210 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 12

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 31 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 3 (3 days later). Frost-free season 217 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at University: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 21, 20% April 15, 30% April 10, 40% April 7, 50% April 3, 60% March 31, 70% March 26, 80% March 20, 90% March 13. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 3, 2022 April 2, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 20, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 21Apr 3Mar 132021: April 32022: April 22023: March 212024: March 202025: March 222026: March 18Fall at University: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 18, 20% October 22, 30% October 26, 40% October 28, 50% October 31, 60% November 3, 70% November 7, 80% November 11, 90% November 17. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 22, 2025 November 3.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 18Oct 31Nov 172021: November 42022: October 182023: October 312024: November 222025: November 3
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 3November 4
2022April 2October 18
2023March 21October 31
2024March 20November 22
2025March 22November 3
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 13 carries a 90% chance of a frost later that day, making it a gamble for University gardeners.

The 50% date is April 3; there is a 50% chance of a frost later than this date. In fall the 50% date is October 31; there is a 50% chance of a frost earlier than this date.

For a cautious plan, University growers would wait until April 21 to set out tender crops, since only a 10% chance of a frost remains after that date, and would aim to finish harvesting by October 18, when there is only a 10% chance that a frost has arrived earlier. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 21" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 18" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near University, MSNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Independence, MS — 28 mi; 2 — Pontotoc, MS — 34 mi; 3 — Hernando, MS — 40 mi; 4 — Tupelo, MS — 44 mi; 5 — Verona, MS — 48 mi.MS25 mi · 40 km1. Independence, MS — 28 mi12. Pontotoc, MS — 34 mi23. Hernando, MS — 40 mi34. Tupelo, MS — 44 mi45. Verona, MS — 48 mi5
  1. Independence, MS 28 mi (45 km)
  2. Pontotoc, MS 34 mi (55 km)
  3. Hernando, MS 40 mi (65 km)
  4. Tupelo, MS 44 mi (71 km)
  5. Verona, MS 48 mi (78 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.3725, -89.5308.