U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00298596 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Sumner Lake, NM

NOAA weather station Sumner Lake (USC00298596), New Mexico · elevation 4306 ft (1313 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 30only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season192 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Sumner Lake, NMSpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 17 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 192 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 17First frost ~Oct 28Frost season at Sumner Lake, NMSpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 17 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 192 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 17First frost ~Oct 28
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 30October 13
50% (typical)April 17October 28
90% (likely)March 31November 8
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
192 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 3
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 5

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 18 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 29 (1 day later). Frost-free season 192 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Sumner Lake: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 30, 20% April 26, 30% April 22, 40% April 20, 50% April 17, 60% April 14, 70% April 10, 80% April 6, 90% March 31. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 21, 2022 April 14, 2023 April 29, 2024 April 10, 2025 April 7, 2026 April 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 30Apr 17Mar 312021: April 212022: April 142023: April 292024: April 102025: April 72026: April 19Fall at Sumner Lake: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 13, 20% October 18, 30% October 21, 40% October 24, 50% October 28, 60% October 31, 70% November 2, 80% November 4, 90% November 8. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 16, 2022 November 11, 2023 October 29, 2024 November 7, 2025 October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 13Oct 28Nov 82021: October 162022: November 112023: October 292024: November 72025: October 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 21October 16
2022April 14November 11
2023April 29October 29
2024April 10November 7
2025April 7October 29
2026April 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 30 is the cautious spring light-frost date for Sumner Lake, with only a 10 % chance of a frost after that day, so a gardener can plan to set out tender crops. The 50 % date, April 17, represents an even chance of a frost later, while the hard-frost 50 % date, April 3, signals when a 28 °F event becomes as likely as not; a hard frost can damage plants more severely than a light frost.

October 13 is the cautious fall light-frost date, carrying just a 10 % chance that a frost has already occurred, giving a gardener a window to finish harvesting tender crops. The 50 % date, October 28, marks equal odds of a frost earlier, and the hard-frost 50 % date, November 5, indicates when a 28 °F freeze is as probable as not.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 30" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 13" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Sumner Lake, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Ragland, NM — 38 mi; 2 — Melrose, NM — 45 mi; 3 — Dilia, NM — 55 mi; 4 — Conchas Dam, NM — 57 mi; 5 — Tucumcari, NM — 57 mi.NM25 mi · 40 km1. Ragland, NM — 38 mi12. Melrose, NM — 45 mi23. Dilia, NM — 55 mi34. Conchas Dam, NM — 57 mi45. Tucumcari, NM — 57 mi5
  1. Ragland, NM 38 mi (61 km)
  2. Melrose, NM 45 mi (72 km)
  3. Dilia, NM 55 mi (89 km)
  4. Conchas Dam, NM 57 mi (91 km)
  5. Tucumcari, NM 57 mi (92 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.6033, -104.3811.