U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00299156 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Tucumcari, NM

NOAA weather station Tucumcari 4 NE (USC00299156), New Mexico · elevation 4086 ft (1245 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 2only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season189 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Tucumcari, NMSpring: a frost after April 2 in 9 years out of 10, after April 18 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 189 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 18First frost ~Oct 25Frost season at Tucumcari, NMSpring: a frost after April 2 in 9 years out of 10, after April 18 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 189 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 18First frost ~Oct 25
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 2October 11
50% (typical)April 18October 25
90% (likely)April 2November 6
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
189 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 4

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 19 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 25. Frost-free season 186 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Tucumcari: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 2, 20% April 28, 30% April 23, 40% April 20, 50% April 18, 60% April 15, 70% April 12, 80% April 8, 90% April 2. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 21, 2022 April 14, 2023 April 23, 2024 April 10, 2025 April 7.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 2Apr 18Apr 22021: April 212022: April 142023: April 232024: April 102025: April 7Fall at Tucumcari: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 11, 20% October 16, 30% October 20, 40% October 22, 50% October 25, 60% October 27, 70% October 30, 80% November 2, 90% November 6. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 12, 2022 October 25, 2023 October 29, 2024 October 31, 2025 October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 11Oct 25Nov 62021: November 122022: October 252023: October 292024: October 312025: October 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 21November 12
2022April 14October 25
2023April 23October 29
2024April 10October 31
2025April 7October 29
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

The 189 days between the 50% dates in Tucumcari – April 18 for spring and October 25 for fall – mark the span in which a gardener faces roughly even odds of a light frost. Those median dates themselves are not frost thresholds; they simply show when the chance of a 32 °F frost is about fifty percent.

For a cautious spring plan the 10 % date of May 2 is used, indicating only a ten-percent chance that a light frost will occur later. In the fall the cautious date is October 11, which carries a ten-percent chance that a light frost has already arrived. A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F because it can freeze plant tissues that survive milder temperatures.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 2" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 11" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Tucumcari, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — San Jon, NM — 21 mi; 2 — Ragland, NM — 29 mi; 3 — Conchas Dam, NM — 32 mi; 4 — Mosquero, NM — 44 mi; 5 — Melrose, NM — 54 mi.NMTX25 mi · 40 km1. San Jon, NM — 21 mi12. Ragland, NM — 29 mi23. Conchas Dam, NM — 32 mi34. Mosquero, NM — 44 mi45. Melrose, NM — 54 mi5
  1. San Jon, NM 21 mi (34 km)
  2. Ragland, NM 29 mi (47 km)
  3. Conchas Dam, NM 32 mi (51 km)
  4. Mosquero, NM 44 mi (71 km)
  5. Melrose, NM 54 mi (86 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.2006, -103.6867.